Glencore plc

JSE:GLN Stock Report

Market Cap: R989.3b

Glencore Valuation

Is GLN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GLN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GLN (ZAR81.12) is trading below our estimate of fair value (ZAR89.34)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GLN is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GLN?

Key metric: As GLN is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for GLN. This is calculated by dividing GLN's market cap by their current revenue.
What is GLN's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.2x
SalesUS$227.51b
Market CapUS$53.99b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does GLN's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for GLN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2.1x
ARI African Rainbow Minerals
2.6x8.2%R29.8b
GFI Gold Fields
2.9x14.9%R230.2b
AMS Anglo American Platinum
1.4x-1.9%R155.0b
HAR Harmony Gold Mining
1.6x5.2%R97.8b
GLN Glencore
0.2x-1.0%R42.9b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: GLN is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the peer average (2.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does GLN's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the ZA Metals and Mining Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ACL ArcelorMittal South Africa
0.04x10.4%US$79.08m
HLM Hulamin
0.08xn/aUS$58.12m
CMO Chrometco
0.1xn/aUS$8.36m
No more companies available in this PS range
GLN 0.2xIndustry Avg. 1.2xNo. of Companies5PS00.61.21.82.43+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: GLN is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the African Metals and Mining industry average (1.2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GLN's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GLN PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.2x
Fair PS Ratio0.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: GLN is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GLN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentR81.12
R116.44
+43.5%
6.8%R131.02R100.10n/a15
Dec ’25R86.16
R116.84
+35.6%
7.6%R130.14R100.20n/a15
Nov ’25R92.61
R114.02
+23.1%
7.5%R126.28R97.60n/a15
Oct ’25R98.99
R113.15
+14.3%
8.6%R138.47R97.65n/a15
Sep ’25R93.35
R117.14
+25.5%
7.7%R135.52R99.72n/a15
Aug ’25R96.99
R122.21
+26.0%
8.0%R140.63R102.61n/a14
Jul ’25R106.77
R119.80
+12.2%
7.3%R133.40R106.08n/a13
Jun ’25R114.95
R119.41
+3.9%
9.3%R133.29R97.85n/a13
May ’25R109.42
R117.35
+7.2%
10.7%R133.31R86.83n/a13
Apr ’25R104.60
R116.51
+11.4%
11.2%R139.76R87.21n/a13
Mar ’25R91.46
R117.25
+28.2%
10.4%R141.81R94.32n/a13
Feb ’25R100.69
R123.45
+22.6%
11.4%R147.39R94.70n/a14
Jan ’25R111.65
R122.57
+9.8%
9.1%R144.54R105.75n/a13
Dec ’24R107.50
R127.72
+18.8%
8.5%R148.51R108.66R86.1612
Nov ’24R98.03
R125.48
+28.0%
9.0%R146.83R110.17R92.6111
Oct ’24R108.13
R133.61
+23.6%
7.8%R154.07R122.05R98.9911
Sep ’24R101.78
R132.61
+30.3%
8.8%R157.95R120.08R93.3512
Aug ’24R109.05
R125.82
+15.4%
8.4%R150.21R115.40R96.9912
Jul ’24R106.65
R135.85
+27.4%
7.4%R155.47R123.81R106.7712
Jun ’24R102.94
R145.18
+41.0%
9.2%R170.62R124.28R114.9513
May ’24R107.59
R135.61
+26.0%
9.1%R158.99R115.80R109.4213
Apr ’24R101.79
R133.57
+31.2%
8.4%R154.91R112.83R104.6017
Mar ’24R111.90
R136.59
+22.1%
8.6%R157.58R114.78R91.4618
Feb ’24R115.70
R132.50
+14.5%
10.1%R157.28R107.84R100.6918
Jan ’24R114.04
R131.50
+15.3%
11.9%R159.75R95.21R111.6519
Dec ’23R121.05
R130.62
+7.9%
11.8%R160.32R95.55R107.5019

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/20 11:18
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Glencore plc is covered by 42 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Teun TeeuwisseABN AMRO Bank N.V.
Pierre-Yves GauthierAlphaValue
Wade NapierAvior Capital Markets