Glencore plc

JSE:GLN Stock Report

Market Cap: R1.1t

Glencore Valuation

Is GLN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GLN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GLN (ZAR87.91) is trading above our estimate of fair value (ZAR87.13)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GLN is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GLN?

Key metric: As GLN is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for GLN. This is calculated by dividing GLN's market cap by their current revenue.
What is GLN's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.3x
SalesUS$227.51b
Market CapUS$58.14b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does GLN's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for GLN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2.2x
ARI African Rainbow Minerals
2.8x8.0%R31.4b
GFI Gold Fields
2.8x14.6%R222.3b
AMS Anglo American Platinum
1.5x-0.06%R165.5b
HAR Harmony Gold Mining
1.6x5.7%R100.9b
GLN Glencore
0.3x-0.8%R46.1b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: GLN is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the peer average (2.2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does GLN's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the ZA Metals and Mining Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ACL ArcelorMittal South Africa
0.04x10.4%US$80.74m
HLM Hulamin
0.09xn/aUS$64.97m
CMO Chrometco
0.1xn/aUS$8.36m
No more companies available in this PS range
GLN 0.3xIndustry Avg. 1.3xNo. of Companies3PS00.61.21.82.43+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: GLN is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the African Metals and Mining industry average (1.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GLN's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GLN PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.3x
Fair PS Ratio0.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: GLN is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GLN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentR87.91
R117.79
+34.0%
7.4%R130.80R100.71n/a15
Nov ’25R92.61
R114.02
+23.1%
7.5%R126.28R97.60n/a15
Oct ’25R98.99
R113.15
+14.3%
8.6%R138.47R97.65n/a15
Sep ’25R93.35
R117.14
+25.5%
7.7%R135.52R99.72n/a15
Aug ’25R96.99
R122.21
+26.0%
8.0%R140.63R102.61n/a14
Jul ’25R106.77
R119.80
+12.2%
7.3%R133.40R106.08n/a13
Jun ’25R114.95
R119.41
+3.9%
9.3%R133.29R97.85n/a13
May ’25R109.42
R117.35
+7.2%
10.7%R133.31R86.83n/a13
Apr ’25R104.60
R116.51
+11.4%
11.2%R139.76R87.21n/a13
Mar ’25R91.46
R117.25
+28.2%
10.4%R141.81R94.32n/a13
Feb ’25R100.69
R123.45
+22.6%
11.4%R147.39R94.70n/a14
Jan ’25R111.65
R122.57
+9.8%
9.1%R144.54R105.75n/a13
Dec ’24R107.50
R127.72
+18.8%
8.5%R148.51R108.66n/a12
Nov ’24R98.03
R125.48
+28.0%
9.0%R146.83R110.17R92.6111
Oct ’24R108.13
R133.61
+23.6%
7.8%R154.07R122.05R98.9911
Sep ’24R101.78
R132.61
+30.3%
8.8%R157.95R120.08R93.3512
Aug ’24R109.05
R125.82
+15.4%
8.4%R150.21R115.40R96.9912
Jul ’24R106.65
R135.85
+27.4%
7.4%R155.47R123.81R106.7712
Jun ’24R102.94
R145.18
+41.0%
9.2%R170.62R124.28R114.9513
May ’24R107.59
R135.61
+26.0%
9.1%R158.99R115.80R109.4213
Apr ’24R101.79
R133.57
+31.2%
8.4%R154.91R112.83R104.6017
Mar ’24R111.90
R136.59
+22.1%
8.6%R157.58R114.78R91.4618
Feb ’24R115.70
R132.50
+14.5%
10.1%R157.28R107.84R100.6918
Jan ’24R114.04
R131.50
+15.3%
11.9%R159.75R95.21R111.6519
Dec ’23R121.05
R130.62
+7.9%
11.8%R160.32R95.55R107.5019
Nov ’23R108.49
R129.92
+19.8%
11.9%R156.22R100.65R98.0319

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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