Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that Gold Fields Limited (JSE:GFI) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Gold Fields
How Much Debt Does Gold Fields Carry?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Gold Fields had debt of US$1.53b at the end of December 2020, a reduction from US$1.85b over a year. However, it does have US$886.9m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$640.0m.
How Healthy Is Gold Fields' Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Gold Fields had liabilities of US$916.5m due within a year, and liabilities of US$2.73b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had US$886.9m in cash and US$133.6m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$2.62b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit isn't so bad because Gold Fields is worth US$8.10b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Gold Fields has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.31. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 13.9 times the size. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. Even more impressive was the fact that Gold Fields grew its EBIT by 114% over twelve months. If maintained that growth will make the debt even more manageable in the years ahead. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Gold Fields's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Gold Fields recorded free cash flow of 30% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
Our View
Happily, Gold Fields's impressive interest cover implies it has the upper hand on its debt. But truth be told we feel its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow does undermine this impression a bit. When we consider the range of factors above, it looks like Gold Fields is pretty sensible with its use of debt. That means they are taking on a bit more risk, in the hope of boosting shareholder returns. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Gold Fields that you should be aware of.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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About JSE:GFI
Gold Fields
Operates as a gold producer with reserves and resources in Chile, South Africa, Ghana, Canada, Australia, and Peru.
High growth potential with excellent balance sheet.