Dis-Chem Pharmacies Limited

JSE:DCP Stock Report

Market Cap: R32.0b

Dis-Chem Pharmacies Valuation

Is DCP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of DCP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: DCP (ZAR37.22) is trading above our estimate of fair value (ZAR24.07)

Significantly Below Fair Value: DCP is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for DCP?

Key metric: As DCP is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for DCP. This is calculated by dividing DCP's market cap by their current earnings.
What is DCP's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio30.1x
EarningsR1.06b
Market CapR31.96b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does DCP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for DCP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average38.5x
CLS Clicks Group
33x12.1%R91.1b
SPP SPAR Group
76.8x53.9%R25.0b
SHP Shoprite Holdings
25.3x11.7%R162.8b
BID Bid
18.8x7.8%R150.6b
DCP Dis-Chem Pharmacies
30.1x19.3%R32.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: DCP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.1x) compared to the peer average (38.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does DCP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Consumer Retailing Industry?

8 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
DCP 30.1xIndustry Avg. 16.2xNo. of Companies52PE01224364860+
8 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: DCP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.1x) compared to the Global Consumer Retailing industry average (16.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is DCP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

DCP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio30.1x
Fair PE Ratio26.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: DCP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst DCP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentR37.22
R39.46
+6.0%
10.4%R43.00R32.00n/a5
Nov ’25R36.81
R38.66
+5.0%
13.2%R42.30R29.00n/a5
Oct ’25R37.88
R35.82
-5.4%
14.8%R42.00R29.00n/a5
Sep ’25R35.00
R35.82
+2.3%
14.8%R42.00R29.00n/a5
Aug ’25R35.63
R33.85
-5.0%
12.2%R42.00R29.00n/a6
Jul ’25R34.00
R33.18
-2.4%
8.8%R38.00R29.00n/a6
Jun ’25R31.28
R30.60
-2.2%
8.9%R33.00R26.00n/a5
May ’25R32.62
R30.60
-6.2%
8.9%R33.00R26.00n/a5
Apr ’25R32.52
R30.00
-7.7%
11.0%R33.00R26.00n/a5
Mar ’25R30.66
R30.00
-2.2%
11.0%R33.00R26.00n/a5
Feb ’25R30.00
R30.10
+0.3%
11.2%R33.50R26.00n/a5
Jan ’25R30.69
R29.72
-3.2%
10.9%R33.50R26.00n/a5
Dec ’24R28.25
R29.72
+5.2%
10.9%R33.50R26.00n/a5
Nov ’24R24.65
R25.08
+1.7%
15.0%R32.00R21.38R36.815
Oct ’24R23.72
R25.28
+6.6%
14.6%R32.00R21.38R37.885
Sep ’24R24.43
R25.28
+3.5%
14.6%R32.00R21.38R35.005
Aug ’24R25.80
R25.28
-2.0%
14.6%R32.00R21.38R35.635
Jul ’24R23.58
R25.28
+7.2%
14.6%R32.00R21.38R34.005
Jun ’24R22.70
R26.25
+15.6%
13.3%R32.00R23.00R31.284
May ’24R26.62
R28.88
+8.5%
14.0%R35.00R25.00R32.624
Apr ’24R25.94
R29.63
+14.2%
11.8%R35.00R25.50R32.524
Mar ’24R26.92
R31.70
+17.8%
14.0%R38.00R25.50R30.665
Feb ’24R30.25
R34.00
+12.4%
11.9%R39.00R28.00R30.005
Jan ’24R28.75
R34.00
+18.3%
11.9%R39.00R28.00R30.695
Dec ’23R30.25
R34.00
+12.4%
11.9%R39.00R28.00R28.255
Nov ’23R33.74
R36.80
+9.1%
6.7%R41.00R35.00R24.654

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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