The Bidvest Group Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

The Bidvest Group Limited (JSE:BVT) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 9.8% to R216 in the week after its latest full-year results. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at R127b, although statutory earnings per share came in 12% below what the analysts expected, at R17.29 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Bidvest Group from six analysts is for revenues of R133.9b in 2026. If met, it would imply an okay 5.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to step up 18% to R20.40. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of R138.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of R21.74 in 2026. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

See our latest analysis for Bidvest Group

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the R309 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Bidvest Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at R338 and the most bearish at R284 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Bidvest Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 5.8% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 2.7% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Bidvest Group is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Bidvest Group. They also downgraded Bidvest Group's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at R309, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Bidvest Group going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Bidvest Group that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.