Shareholders Can Be Confident That Aveng's (JSE:AEG) Earnings Are High Quality

Even though Aveng Limited's (JSE:AEG) recent earnings release was robust, the market didn't seem to notice. Investors are probably missing some underlying factors which are encouraging for the future of the company.

View our latest analysis for Aveng

A Closer Look At Aveng's Earnings

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

Over the twelve months to June 2024, Aveng recorded an accrual ratio of -0.57. Therefore, its statutory earnings were very significantly less than its free cashflow. To wit, it produced free cash flow of AU$76m during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of AU$25.7m. Notably, Aveng had negative free cash flow last year, so the AU$76m it produced this year was a welcome improvement. However, we can see that a recent tax benefit, along with unusual items, have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore its accrual ratio.

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Aveng.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

Aveng's profit was reduced by unusual items worth AU$17m in the last twelve months, and this helped it produce high cash conversion, as reflected by its unusual items. This is what you'd expect to see where a company has a non-cash charge reducing paper profits. While deductions due to unusual items are disappointing in the first instance, there is a silver lining. We looked at thousands of listed companies and found that unusual items are very often one-off in nature. And that's hardly a surprise given these line items are considered unusual. Aveng took a rather significant hit from unusual items in the year to June 2024. As a result, we can surmise that the unusual items made its statutory profit significantly weaker than it would otherwise be.

An Unusual Tax Situation

In addition to the notable accrual ratio, we can see that Aveng received a tax benefit of AU$9.7m. This is meaningful because companies usually pay tax rather than receive tax benefits. The receipt of a tax benefit is obviously a good thing, on its own. And given that it lost money last year, it seems possible that the benefit is evidence that it now expects to find value in its past tax losses. However, our data indicates that tax benefits can temporarily boost statutory profit in the year it is booked, but subsequently profit may fall back. In the likely event the tax benefit is not repeated, we'd expect to see its statutory profit levels drop, at least in the absence of strong growth.

Our Take On Aveng's Profit Performance

In conclusion, both Aveng's accrual ratio and its unusual items suggest that its statutory earnings are probably reasonably conservative, but the presence of a tax benefits may be inflating the numbers in a way that won't persist. Looking at all these factors, we'd say that Aveng's underlying earnings power is at least as good as the statutory numbers would make it seem. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. You'd be interested to know, that we found 4 warning signs for Aveng and you'll want to know about these.

After our examination into the nature of Aveng's profit, we've come away optimistic for the company. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.