Vistra (NYSE:VST) Use Of Debt Could Be Considered Risky

Published
August 01, 2022
NYSE:VST
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The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Vistra

What Is Vistra's Net Debt?

As you can see below, Vistra had US$11.2b of debt at March 2022, down from US$12.1b a year prior. On the flip side, it has US$1.02b in cash leading to net debt of about US$10.1b.

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NYSE:VST Debt to Equity History August 1st 2022

A Look At Vistra's Liabilities

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Vistra had liabilities of US$9.87b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$15.7b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$1.02b and US$1.84b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total US$22.7b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

The deficiency here weighs heavily on the US$11.2b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, Vistra would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Vistra has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.5 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 2.6 times. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. One redeeming factor for Vistra is that it turned last year's EBIT loss into a gain of US$843m, over the last twelve months. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Vistra can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it is important to check how much of its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) converts to actual free cash flow. Over the last year, Vistra reported free cash flow worth 16% of its EBIT, which is really quite low. For us, cash conversion that low sparks a little paranoia about is ability to extinguish debt.

Our View

We'd go so far as to say Vistra's level of total liabilities was disappointing. But at least its EBIT growth rate is not so bad. Overall, it seems to us that Vistra's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Vistra (1 is a bit concerning) you should be aware of.

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

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