UGI (UGI): Assessing Valuation After a 46% One-Year Share Price Climb

UGI (UGI) has been quietly climbing, with the stock up around 46% over the past year and roughly 17% in the past 3 months, drawing fresh attention to its valuation.

See our latest analysis for UGI.

With the share price now at $38.63 and a strong year to date share price return backed by a 1 year total shareholder return in the mid 40 percent range, UGI looks like a name where positive momentum and improving sentiment are starting to converge with a still debated valuation.

If this kind of steady rerating appeals to you, it might be worth seeing what else is out there in utilities and infrastructure. A possible starting point is fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

But with UGI still trading at a near 30 percent intrinsic value discount and roughly 14 percent below analyst targets, is the market overlooking further upside or already pricing in the utility's next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 10.2% Undervalued

With UGI last closing at $38.63 versus a narrative fair value near $43, the story leans toward upside and leans heavily on long term cash flow durability.

Strategic investments in renewable natural gas (RNG) projects, bonus depreciation potential, and stronger regulatory incentives through recent legislation (e.g., the One Big Beautiful Bill Act) are expected to drive long term EBITDA growth and improve net margins.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how modest growth in revenues, fatter margins, and a cooler future earnings multiple can still point to upside from here? The full narrative unpacks the exact mix of rate cases, infrastructure spend, and earnings power that underpins that higher fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $43 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, sustained LPG demand erosion in Europe and rising utility operating costs could undermine margin expansion assumptions and put pressure on long term earnings growth.

Find out about the key risks to this UGI narrative.

Build Your Own UGI Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or want to stress test your own assumptions, you can build a custom view of UGI in just a few minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your UGI research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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