A Fresh Look at UGI (UGI) Valuation Following Recent Share Price Movement

UGI (UGI) has been on investors’ radars lately due to its recent performance and underlying financials. Over the past month, shares have seen a slight dip. However, year-to-date returns remain positive, sparking new questions about its current valuation.

See our latest analysis for UGI.

UGI’s share price has shown resilience since the start of the year, gaining 14.6% year-to-date. Its one-year total shareholder return stands out even more at 34.12%. Although recent weeks have seen some softness, momentum still looks encouraging overall, especially in light of the company’s steady progress and improved long-term returns.

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With robust year-to-date gains and a notable return over the past twelve months, the big question now is whether UGI’s current price reflects its true value or if further growth is being overlooked by the market.

Most Popular Narrative: 21% Undervalued

UGI's widely followed narrative places fair value at $41.00 per share, which is considerably higher than its latest close at $32.41. This sets up a strong case for potential upside, driven by fundamental shifts in the company's operating landscape.

Strategic investments in renewable natural gas (RNG) projects, bonus depreciation potential, and stronger regulatory incentives through recent legislation (for example, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act) are expected to drive long-term EBITDA growth and improve net margins.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to uncover the financial gears powering this outlook? Beneath the surface, ambitious growth targets and major regulatory tailwinds are working in UGI’s favor. The narrative’s most surprising bet centers on future margin expansion and how aggressive earnings assumptions stack up against the current market price. What could take this valuation even higher? Click to reveal the full set of bullish projections and underpinning logic.

Result: Fair Value of $41.00 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing declines in European LPG demand and rising costs across utility segments could slow UGI’s margin gains in the years ahead.

Find out about the key risks to this UGI narrative.

Build Your Own UGI Narrative

If the numbers or outlook described above don’t fit your view, dive into the data and build your own take on UGI in just minutes. Do it your way

Prefer to form your own view? Our platform makes it easy to explore a stock's fundamentals and create your own narrative in minutes.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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