Lowered 2025 Earnings Guidance Might Change the Case for Investing in PG&E (PCG)

• On July 31, 2025, PG&E Corporation reported second-quarter results, showing US$5.90 billion in revenue, stable net income compared to last year, and subsequently lowered its full-year 2025 earnings guidance to a range of US$1.26 to US$1.32 per share.
• The downward revision in earnings outlook signals a more cautious stance from management despite steady quarterly performance, hinting at ongoing operational or regulatory pressures weighing on longer-term profitability.
• We will evaluate how PG&E’s revised earnings outlook for 2025 reshapes the company’s investment narrative and future growth expectations.

Trump's oil boom is here - pipelines are primed to profit. Discover the 22 US stocks riding the wave.

PG&E Investment Narrative Recap

At its core, investing in PG&E means believing in the company's ability to manage regulatory risks, ongoing wildfire liabilities, and heavy infrastructure spending, while capturing growth from California’s energy demands. The latest earnings results and lower 2025 guidance do not materially change the near-term catalyst of robust data center and electrification-driven load growth, but they do reinforce that regulatory cost recovery and ongoing earnings pressure remain the biggest near-term risk for shareholders.

Among recent announcements, PG&E's updated full-year earnings guidance is most relevant. The revised range reflects continued operational challenges, but also signals management recognizing the persistent headwinds tied to earnings volatility and cost recovery, keeping investor focus squarely on future regulatory decisions and margin performance.

By contrast, investors should keep in mind that any unexpected shifts in regulatory policy or wildfire liability frameworks could...

Read the full narrative on PG&E (it's free!)

PG&E's narrative projects $27.6 billion revenue and $4.0 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 4.1% yearly revenue growth and a $1.6 billion earnings increase from the current $2.4 billion.

Uncover how PG&E's forecasts yield a $20.60 fair value, a 36% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Five members of the Simply Wall St Community placed PG&E’s fair value between US$6.68 and US$20.60 per share. Regulatory uncertainty on cost recovery in California remains a key factor shaping future returns, so consider multiple opinions as you assess possible outcomes for the stock.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on PG&E - why the stock might be worth as much as 36% more than the current price!

Build Your Own PG&E Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your PG&E research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free PG&E research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate PG&E's overall financial health at a glance.

Searching For A Fresh Perspective?

Right now could be the best entry point. These picks are fresh from our daily scans. Don't delay:

• These 14 companies survived and thrived after COVID and have the right ingredients to survive Trump's tariffs. Discover why before your portfolio feels the trade war pinch.
• The end of cancer? These 26 emerging AI stocks are developing tech that will allow early identification of life changing diseases like cancer and Alzheimer's.
• Rare earth metals are an input to most high-tech devices, military and defence systems and electric vehicles. The global race is on to secure supply of these critical minerals. Beat the pack to uncover the 26 best rare earth metal stocks of the very few that mine this essential strategic resource.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com