With NiSource Inc. (NYSE:NI) It Looks Like You'll Get What You Pay For

It's not a stretch to say that NiSource Inc.'s (NYSE:NI) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 18.4x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in the United States, where the median P/E ratio is around 17x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

Recent times haven't been advantageous for NiSource as its earnings have been falling quicker than most other companies. It might be that many expect the dismal earnings performance to revert back to market averages soon, which has kept the P/E from falling. If you still like the company, you'd want its earnings trajectory to turn around before making any decisions. Or at the very least, you'd be hoping it doesn't keep underperforming if your plan is to pick up some stock while it's not in favour.

View our latest analysis for NiSource

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on NiSource.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/E?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/E like NiSource's is when the company's growth is tracking the market closely.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 14% decrease to the company's bottom line. This has erased any of its gains during the last three years, with practically no change in EPS being achieved in total. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 10% each year during the coming three years according to the seven analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be similar to the 10% per annum growth forecast for the broader market.

With this information, we can see why NiSource is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. It seems most investors are expecting to see average future growth and are only willing to pay a moderate amount for the stock.

The Key Takeaway

Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

As we suspected, our examination of NiSource's analyst forecasts revealed that its market-matching earnings outlook is contributing to its current P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement or deterioration in earnings isn't great enough to justify a high or low P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price moving strongly in either direction in the near future under these circumstances.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with NiSource (at least 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than NiSource. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.