A Look at National Fuel Gas’s (NFG) Valuation Following Strong Earnings and Reaffirmed Production Guidance

National Fuel Gas (NFG) just released its latest quarterly results, showing higher revenues and a strong return to profitability compared to last year. The company also reaffirmed its 2026 production targets, signaling ongoing confidence in its outlook.

See our latest analysis for National Fuel Gas.

The upbeat earnings report and reaffirmed production targets appear to have reignited interest in National Fuel Gas, helping the company log a robust year-to-date share price return of nearly 30%. With a one-year total shareholder return of 34%, NFG’s long-term momentum continues to build as recent operational wins strengthen investor conviction around its growth outlook.

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But with shares rallying sharply this year and the company trading nearly 30% higher year-to-date, investors may be wondering whether National Fuel Gas remains undervalued or if the market has already priced in its future growth potential.

Most Popular Narrative: 21.6% Undervalued

National Fuel Gas’s prevailing narrative sets a fair value that is meaningfully above the recent close, pointing to a sizable valuation gap. With analysts forecasting ambitious improvements in earnings and efficiency, all eyes are on whether management can deliver the growth anticipated by these projections. Here’s an excerpt that sheds light on the drivers behind this bullish view:

"Expansion and modernization projects such as Shippingport Lateral and Tioga Pathway position the company to capitalize on regional population growth and rising industrial loads in the Northeast, enabling mid-single-digit annual rate base and production growth with improving capital efficiency, which should support higher future earnings and free cash flow."

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how impressive capital projects and future profit margins could justify such a bold valuation gap? The secret lies in projected leaps in earnings, margin expansion, and aggressive growth targets. Each element is raising eyebrows across the market. Find out what numbers really lie behind this fair value call.

Result: Fair Value of $101.33 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, policy moves toward decarbonization or rising capital requirements could quickly alter National Fuel Gas’s growth outlook and challenge these bullish forecasts.

Find out about the key risks to this National Fuel Gas narrative.

Build Your Own National Fuel Gas Narrative

If you see the story unfolding differently, or want to dive into the numbers yourself, it’s easy to craft your own narrative in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your National Fuel Gas research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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