Uber (UBER): Assessing Valuation After First Driverless Robotaxi Launch and Global Autonomous Expansion

Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER) is pushing into new territory this week, rolling out fully driverless Robotaxi operations in Abu Dhabi with WeRide. This milestone marks Uber’s first autonomous service deployment in the Middle East and outside the US.

See our latest analysis for Uber Technologies.

Uber’s push into autonomous mobility comes at a time of notable share price momentum, with a robust year-to-date share price return of 37% and a three-year total shareholder return of 213%. While recent weeks saw some volatility, continued expansion into new markets and categories hints at building growth potential for long-term investors.

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With a share price still trading at around a 28% discount to average analyst price targets, while also showing strong recent gains, the big question is whether Uber remains undervalued or if the market has already priced in the company’s future growth trajectory.

Most Popular Narrative: 15% Overvalued

According to YasserSakuragi, Uber's last close price is running well ahead of what the narrative considers a reasonable entry point, based on calculations that factor in robust near-term momentum and expansion. The narrative values Uber significantly below its current trading range, a stance supported by future projections for revenue and profit growth, plus profit margin expectations over the next several years.

2030 Revenue Projection: $65-70B. 2030 EBITDA: $14-15B (22% margin with autonomous vehicle benefits). Fair Value Range: $90-135B market cap. Current Market Cap: $192B (significantly overvalued).

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what assumptions drive this valuation gap? There's a surprising interplay of ambitious revenue growth, operating margins, and the expected impact of autonomous tech. Find out which bold forecasts set this narrative apart, and whether they'd change how you value Uber.

Result: Fair Value of $75 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, stronger than expected advances in autonomous technology or a surprising acceleration in profitability could quickly shift the valuation outlook for Uber.

Find out about the key risks to this Uber Technologies narrative.

Another View: SWS DCF Model Signals Undervaluation

While many investors see Uber as significantly overvalued on a near-term growth basis, our SWS DCF model comes to a different conclusion. This approach suggests Uber shares are actually trading well below intrinsic value, with the current price nearly 49% beneath the fair value estimate. Could this sharply different perspective mean the market is discounting Uber’s long-term potential too heavily, or is it missing risks the narrative spots?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Build Your Own Uber Technologies Narrative

If you want to put these numbers and assumptions to the test yourself, you can dive into the data and build your own view in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Uber Technologies research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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