Earnings Miss: GXO Logistics, Inc. Missed EPS By 21% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

It's been a mediocre week for GXO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:GXO) shareholders, with the stock dropping 11% to US$48.31 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Results overall were not great, with earnings of US$0.32 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit US$2.8b and were slightly better than forecasts. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for GXO Logistics

After the latest results, the eleven analysts covering GXO Logistics are now predicting revenues of US$11.5b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a solid 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 31% to US$1.54. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$11.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.52 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$67.60. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on GXO Logistics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$82.00 and the most bearish at US$51.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting GXO Logistics' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 23% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 11% per annum over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.2% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect GXO Logistics to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for GXO Logistics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that GXO Logistics is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.