The Bull Case For FedEx (FDX) Could Change Following Upbeat Earnings and Revived Outlook Amid Trade Pressures

• FedEx Corporation recently reported first quarter 2026 results that exceeded analyst expectations, highlighted by strong U.S. domestic package growth and cost-saving measures that offset ongoing international trade headwinds.
• Despite a forecasted US$1 billion earnings impact from new tariffs and weaker China-to-U.S. package flows, FedEx reinstated its full-year outlook, projecting revenue growth of 4% to 6% and continued progress on its upcoming FedEx Freight spinoff.
• To understand how this upbeat guidance amid international challenges may shape expectations for FedEx’s future, we’ll examine its investment narrative.

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FedEx Investment Narrative Recap

For FedEx shareholders, the central narrative hinges on believing that aggressive cost reductions and U.S. domestic strength can offset ongoing tariff headwinds and international trade challenges. The recent fiscal first-quarter results, which exceeded expectations and reinstated positive full-year guidance, reinforce the company's ability to execute on cost-saving initiatives, but the impact of tariffs and weaker China-to-U.S. flows remains the most important short-term risk. This news does not materially shift the catalyst, which remains FedEx's progress in optimizing operations and spinning off its Freight business, both seen as key to margin improvement. Among recent announcements, FedEx's ongoing buyback program, with nearly US$500 million in shares repurchased since June 2025, stands out. This action signals continued confidence in the company’s financial position and aligns with the broader catalyst of margin management and capital discipline, even as macro and trade uncertainties persist. However, the persistent risk of further international revenue pressure, particularly from global trade policy shifts, is something investors should keep in mind as...

Read the full narrative on FedEx (it's free!)

FedEx's narrative projects $95.1 billion revenue and $5.2 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 2.6% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of $1.1 billion from $4.1 billion today.

Uncover how FedEx's forecasts yield a $263.04 fair value, a 13% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

The Simply Wall St Community offers 10 unique fair value estimates for FedEx, ranging from US$215.68 to US$406.50 per share. As revenue quality faces pressure from pricing and yield challenges in international markets, you can see how expectations and opinions diverge among private investors.

Explore 10 other fair value estimates on FedEx - why the stock might be worth as much as 75% more than the current price!

Build Your Own FedEx Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your FedEx research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free FedEx research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate FedEx's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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