Results: Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

It's been a good week for Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (NYSE:EXPD) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 2.7% to US$117. Revenues were US$2.2b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$1.18 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 10%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Expeditors International of Washington

Taking into account the latest results, Expeditors International of Washington's 14 analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$8.88b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to shrink 3.7% to US$4.75 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$9.00b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.67 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$108. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Expeditors International of Washington analyst has a price target of US$126 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$84.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 0.5% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 10% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.3% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Expeditors International of Washington is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Expeditors International of Washington's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Expeditors International of Washington analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of Expeditors International of Washington's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.