Is Expeditors International a Good Value After Recent Digital Freight Investments in 2025?

Thinking about what to do with Expeditors International of Washington stock? You are not alone. With logistics and freight forwarding companies back in the spotlight, a lot of investors are wondering if this is the right time to jump in or sit tight. Recently, Expeditors' share price has been steady but not quiet, posting a 3.1% gain over the past week and up a solid 10.0% year-to-date. While the one-year return sits at just 2.0%, the three- and five-year numbers show a long-term trajectory that is hard to ignore, climbing 30.7% and 36.0% respectively.

The company's latest headlines have centered around strategic investments in automation and digital freight tracking, aligning with broader industry moves to streamline supply chains. There has also been some buzz about expanding service offerings in Europe and Asia, giving investors more to consider when sizing up future growth. None of these stories have been dramatic enough to spark rapid price swings, but they do help explain why market sentiment may be warming, especially as global shipping disruptions remain in the news.

On the valuation front, Expeditors earns a value score of 3 out of a possible 6 on our scale, which means it checks three boxes for being undervalued. That is not bad, but is it enough? Next, we will walk through what those valuation measures mean and how Expeditors stacks up. If you keep reading, I will share a way to go beyond the usual number-crunching to get a truer sense of the company's worth.

Expeditors International of Washington delivered 2.0% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Logistics industry.

Approach 1: Expeditors International of Washington Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates what a company is worth by projecting its future cash flows and "discounting" them back to today's value. In other words, it looks ahead at likely future earnings and asks what those profits are worth right now.

For Expeditors International of Washington, the DCF analysis starts with its latest Free Cash Flow, which was $812.7 million. Analysts forecast modest growth in these figures, with projections rising to $918 million by year-end 2027. Looking out a full decade, Simply Wall St's extrapolated estimates suggest free cash flows could reach as high as $1.17 billion. Most forecasts become less reliable the further they look into the future.

Factoring in these projections and applying an appropriate discount rate, the model calculates an intrinsic value of $153.30 per share. With the stock currently trading at a 21.1% discount to this estimate, the implication is that Expeditors shares are undervalued by DCF standards.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Expeditors International of Washington.

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Expeditors International of Washington is undervalued by 21.1%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover more undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Expeditors International of Washington Price vs Earnings

The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is often the go-to valuation tool for profitable companies like Expeditors International of Washington. This is because it directly reflects how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of the company’s current earnings, making it a useful benchmark when the business is consistently generating profits.

What constitutes a “normal” or “fair” PE ratio depends in large part on how fast a company is growing and how risky its future earnings appear. Higher growth expectations or lower risk typically justify a higher PE, while slower growth or higher risk will usually bring the number down.

Right now, Expeditors trades at a PE ratio of 19.3x. For context, this is higher than the logistics industry average of 15.9x, but well below the average for its closest peers, which sits at 38.7x. Simply Wall St’s proprietary “Fair Ratio” for Expeditors is 12.0x. This takes into account all the unique features of the company such as its growth profile, profit margin, market cap, and risk level.

The Fair Ratio provides a more tailored perspective than industry or peer comparisons because it considers both company-specific strengths and potential weaknesses rather than relying solely on broad benchmarks.

Since Expeditors’ current PE ratio of 19.3x is above its Fair Ratio of 12.0x, this analysis suggests the stock is trading at a premium based on earnings.

Result: OVERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Expeditors International of Washington Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let us introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is simply your unique story or perspective about a company, built on what you believe about its future revenue, profit margins, and fair value. Narratives go beyond pure numbers by connecting your outlook for Expeditors International of Washington to a specific financial forecast, and from there to an actionable fair value estimate.

Narratives are fully accessible on Simply Wall St’s Community page, used by millions of investors, and make it easy to link your beliefs to real valuation data. By comparing your Narrative’s fair value with the current stock price, you can see at a glance whether it might be time to buy, hold, or sell. In addition, Narratives update automatically whenever there is new news or earnings reports, so your perspective is always linked to the latest events.

For example, while one Narrative might forecast Expeditors at its highest fair value based on rapid global expansion and digital adoption, another could take a more conservative view, focusing on slower freight growth and pricing pressures, leading to much lower fair value estimates. Narratives let you invest with confidence by seeing how your story stacks up against others and the current market price.

Do you think there's more to the story for Expeditors International of Washington? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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