Azul Valuation

Is AZUL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AZUL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AZUL ($2.55) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($3.23)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AZUL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AZUL?

Key metric: As AZUL is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for AZUL. This is calculated by dividing AZUL's market cap by their current revenue.
What is AZUL's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	0.09x
Sales	R$18.89b
Market Cap	R$1.73b

AZUL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	25.5x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does AZUL's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for AZUL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	0.6x
BLDE Blade Air Mobility	1.1x	7.0%	US$258.4m
FLYX flyExclusive	0.1x	28.3%	US$168.0m
SNCY Sun Country Airlines Holdings	0.7x	8.3%	US$726.9m
ULCC Frontier Group Holdings	0.3x	12.7%	US$1.3b
AZUL Azul	0.09x	10.5%	US$1.7b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: AZUL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.1x) compared to the peer average (0.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does AZUL's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Airlines Industry?

8 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	0.6x	7.8%
AZUL Azul	0.09x	10.5%	US$297.81m
MESA Mesa Air Group	0.08x	n/a	US$35.96m
TAWN.F Thai Airways International	0.004x	n/a	US$21.83m

8 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	0.6x	18.4%
AZUL Azul	0.09x	107.0%	US$297.81m

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: AZUL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.1x) compared to the North American Airlines industry average (0.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AZUL's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AZUL PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	0.09x
Fair PS Ratio	0.5x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: AZUL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.