Alaska Air Group Future Growth

Future criteria checks 4/6

Alaska Air Group is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 41.1% and 8.7% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 42.6% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 16.6% in 3 years.

Key information

41.1%

Earnings growth rate

42.58%

EPS growth rate

Airlines earnings growth	14.3%
Revenue growth rate	8.7%
Future return on equity	16.59%
Analyst coverage	Good
Last updated	09 May 2025

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Acquisition Of Hawaiian Airlines Will Unlock Significant Synergies And Expand Global Reach

Jan 26 Integration with Hawaiian Airlines and network expansion are key strategies to boost revenue and earnings growth through synergies and international market reach.

Alaska Airlines Maps A Stronger Future

Jan 17

Alaska Airlines Stock Surges 15% On Bullish Outlook

Dec 10

Alaska Air Group: Post-Hawaiian Perils

Nov 12

Alaska Air Group: What Is The Stock Worth After Hawaiian Airlines Takeover?

Sep 26

The World Opens To Alaska Airlines With Its Merger Approval

Sep 19

Alaska Airlines And Hawaiian Airlines Move Closer To Merger Approval After DoJ Review

Aug 21

Alaska Air Group: Turnaround Is Underway

Jun 16

Alaska Air Group: Strategic Adjustments And Resilient Performance Amid Industry Challenges

May 23

Alaska Air Group Earnings Preview: Look Past An Ugly Quarter

Apr 16

Alaska Air Group: Short-Term Issues Don't Affect Growth Prospects

Feb 28

Alaska Air: Navigating The Opportunities And Risks

Feb 03

Alaska Airlines Earnings Soar Despite Boeing 737 MAX 9 Headwinds

Jan 26

Airline Merger: Alaska Airlines To Buy Hawaiian Airlines At Mega Premium

Dec 04

Alaska Air Group: Facing Medium-Term Headwinds But Still A Good Investment Choice

Nov 27

Alaska Airlines: Flying Into A Troubled Market Forcing Rating Downgrade

Oct 22

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:ALK - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
12/31/2027	16,166	1,069	952	2,580	10
12/31/2026	15,238	815	553	2,178	14
12/31/2025	14,210	411	423	1,734	13
3/31/2025	12,640	361	200	1,631	N/A
12/31/2024	11,735	395	183	1,464	N/A
9/30/2024	10,754	322	-218	1,137	N/A
6/30/2024	10,521	225	-357	1,090	N/A
3/31/2024	10,462	245	-338	1,120	N/A
12/31/2023	10,426	235	-444	1,050	N/A
9/30/2023	10,352	259	-603	1,112	N/A
6/30/2023	10,341	160	-658	1,015	N/A
3/31/2023	10,161	59	-154	1,353	N/A
12/31/2022	9,646	58	-253	1,418	N/A
9/30/2022	9,066	54	489	1,538	N/A
6/30/2022	8,191	208	436	1,258	N/A
3/31/2022	7,060	466	597	1,150	N/A
12/31/2021	6,176	478	738	1,030	N/A
9/30/2021	5,085	13	343	551	N/A
6/30/2021	3,833	-612	296	452	N/A
3/31/2021	2,727	-1,223	-230	-100	N/A
12/31/2020	3,566	-1,324	-456	-234	N/A
9/30/2020	4,986	-696	84	457	N/A
6/30/2020	6,674	57	479	1,010	N/A
3/31/2020	8,541	533	587	1,287	N/A
12/31/2019	8,781	769	1,026	1,722	N/A
9/30/2019	8,617	611	657	1,590	N/A
6/30/2019	8,440	506	632	1,502	N/A
3/31/2019	8,308	437	517	1,357	N/A
12/31/2018	8,264	437	N/A	1,195	N/A
9/30/2018	8,142	729	N/A	1,219	N/A
6/30/2018	8,040	771	N/A	1,232	N/A
3/31/2018	7,986	871	N/A	1,426	N/A
12/31/2017	7,894	960	N/A	1,590	N/A
9/30/2017	7,476	759	N/A	1,537	N/A
6/30/2017	6,932	756	N/A	1,571	N/A
3/31/2017	6,324	723	N/A	1,331	N/A
12/31/2016	5,925	797	N/A	1,386	N/A
9/30/2016	5,784	891	N/A	1,561	N/A
6/30/2016	5,733	909	N/A	1,594	N/A
3/31/2016	5,676	883	N/A	1,595	N/A
12/31/2015	5,598	848	N/A	1,584	N/A
9/30/2015	5,527	805	N/A	1,367	N/A
6/30/2015	5,477	729	N/A	1,284	N/A
3/31/2015	5,415	660	N/A	1,302	N/A
12/31/2014	5,368	605	N/A	1,030	N/A
9/30/2014	5,272	535	N/A	1,051	N/A
6/30/2014	5,171	626	N/A	1,024	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ALK's forecast earnings growth (41.1% per year) is above the savings rate (2.8%).

Earnings vs Market: ALK's earnings (41.1% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (14.3% per year).

High Growth Earnings: ALK's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: ALK's revenue (8.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (8.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ALK's revenue (8.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ALK's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (16.6%).

Discover growth companies

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2025/05/20 03:50
End of Day Share Price	2025/05/20 00:00
Earnings	2025/03/31
Annual Earnings	2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Alaska Air Group, Inc. is covered by 34 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Garrett Chase	Barclays
Brandon Oglenski	Barclays
Brandon Oglenski	Barclays

Alaska Air Group Future Growth

Future criteria checks 4/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 36%

Price target decreased by 7.6% to US$63.29

Price target decreased by 10% to US$76.36

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 16%

Price target increased by 9.1% to US$79.93

Price target increased by 16% to US$71.92

Recent updates

Insider notifies of intention to sell stock

Alaska Air Group and Alaska Airlines Promote Brooke Vatheuer to Senior Vice President of Safety and Audit Programs

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 19%

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 36%

Price target decreased by 7.6% to US$63.29

First quarter 2025 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations

Alaska Air Group: Shares Plunge Due To Economic Uncertainty

Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16%

Alaska Air Group, Inc. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on Apr 23, 2025

Price target decreased by 10% to US$76.36

Aalaska Air Group, Inc. Announces Retirement of J. Kenneth Thompson from Board, Effective May 4, 2025

Alaska Air Group, Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 08, 2025

Alaska Air Group: A High-Flying Bargain

Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16%

Insider recently sold US$698k worth of stock

CFO & Executive VP of Finance notifies of intention to sell stock

Insider recently sold US$655k worth of stock

Alaska Airlines: Solid Q4 But A Hold For Now

Acquisition Of Hawaiian Airlines Will Unlock Significant Synergies And Expand Global Reach

President notifies of intention to sell stock

Full year 2024 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations

Alaska Airlines Maps A Stronger Future

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 16%

Price target increased by 9.1% to US$79.93

Alaska Air Group, Inc. Announces New Flights to Alaska from Detroit and Sacramento

President recently sold US$2.0m worth of stock

Insider notifies of intention to sell stock

Price target increased by 16% to US$71.92

Alaska Air Group, Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 11%

Alaska Air Group, Inc. (NYSE:ALK) announces an Equity Buyback for $1,000 million worth of its shares.

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 17%

Alaska Airlines Stock Surges 15% On Bullish Outlook

Alaska Air Group Launches New Global Gateway in Seattle with Unveils of Nonstop Routes on Hawaiian Airlines to Tokyo Narita and Seoul Incheon

Price target increased by 7.3% to US$60.34

Alaska Airlines Unveils Suite of Elevated West Coast Offerings Debuting This Fall

Alaska Air Group: Post-Hawaiian Perils

Alaska Air Group, Inc. Provides Operating Guidance for the Fourth Quarter 2024

New minor risk - Financial position

Third quarter 2024 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 28%

Alaska Air Group: What Is The Stock Worth After Hawaiian Airlines Takeover?

The World Opens To Alaska Airlines With Its Merger Approval

Alaska Air Group, Inc. (NYSE:ALK) completed the acquisition of Hawaiian Holdings, Inc. (NasdaqGS:HA).

Alaska Airlines And Hawaiian Airlines Move Closer To Merger Approval After DoJ Review

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 47%

Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Now 20% overvalued

Alaska Air Group, Inc. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Jul 18, 2024

Alaska Air Group: Turnaround Is Underway

Alaska Air Group: Strategic Adjustments And Resilient Performance Amid Industry Challenges

Alaska Airlines Launches New Nonstop Service Between Seattle and Toronto

Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise

First quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Alaska Air Group, Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for the Second Quarter Ending June 30, 2024 and Full Year of 2024

First quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Alaska Air Group Earnings Preview: Look Past An Ugly Quarter

Alaska Air Group, Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 09, 2024

Alaska Air Group: Short-Term Issues Don't Affect Growth Prospects

Alaska Air: Navigating The Opportunities And Risks

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 17%

Insufficient new directors

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 23%

Alaska Airlines Earnings Soar Despite Boeing 737 MAX 9 Headwinds

Full year 2023 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations

Alaska Air Group, Inc.(NYSE:ALK) dropped from S&P 500 Value

Alaska Air Group, Inc. (NYSE:ALK) entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Hawaiian Holdings, Inc. (NasdaqGS:HA) for approximately $930 million.

Airline Merger: Alaska Airlines To Buy Hawaiian Airlines At Mega Premium

Alaska Air Group: Facing Medium-Term Headwinds But Still A Good Investment Choice