Is United Airlines Holdings (NASDAQ:UAL) A Risky Investment?

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UAL) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

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When Is Debt Dangerous?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

What Is United Airlines Holdings's Debt?

As you can see below, United Airlines Holdings had US$27.7b of debt, at March 2025, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it does have US$15.3b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$12.3b.

How Strong Is United Airlines Holdings' Balance Sheet?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that United Airlines Holdings had liabilities of US$25.8b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$37.7b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$15.3b as well as receivables valued at US$2.29b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$45.9b.

This deficit casts a shadow over the US$26.9b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, United Airlines Holdings would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.

See our latest analysis for United Airlines Holdings

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

With net debt sitting at just 1.5 times EBITDA, United Airlines Holdings is arguably pretty conservatively geared. And this view is supported by the solid interest coverage, with EBIT coming in at 9.5 times the interest expense over the last year. The good news is that United Airlines Holdings has increased its EBIT by 5.3% over twelve months, which should ease any concerns about debt repayment. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine United Airlines Holdings's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, United Airlines Holdings recorded free cash flow of 41% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.

Our View

Mulling over United Airlines Holdings's attempt at staying on top of its total liabilities, we're certainly not enthusiastic. But at least it's pretty decent at covering its interest expense with its EBIT; that's encouraging. Looking at the balance sheet and taking into account all these factors, we do believe that debt is making United Airlines Holdings stock a bit risky. Some people like that sort of risk, but we're mindful of the potential pitfalls, so we'd probably prefer it carry less debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example - United Airlines Holdings has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.