Saia (SAIA): Valuation Perspective Following Analyst Coverage and Strong Q3 Results

Saia (SAIA) drew market attention after Rothschild Redburn launched coverage, highlighting the company’s recent expansion and operational changes. This coverage followed Saia’s third-quarter earnings report, which surpassed expectations despite growing margin pressures.

See our latest analysis for Saia.

Saia’s share price has faced heavy pressure this year, down 36.8% year-to-date, as investors have wrestled with shifting margins and debate over the company’s growth strategy. Even with a recent 3.7% uptick in the past week following upbeat earnings, longer-term momentum has faded. Saia’s total shareholder return over the last year is negative 50.5%, though it still boasts a robust 53.9% total return over five years. News of strong results and recent analyst attention may help stabilize sentiment, but the market’s recalibration of risk has clearly set a new tone for the stock heading into year-end.

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With Saia's shares trading well below recent highs and analyst targets suggesting upside, the key question remains: Is Saia undervalued after its selloff, or is the market already accounting for future growth in its current price?

Most Popular Narrative: 12% Undervalued

Saia shares closed at $281.56, while the most followed narrative suggests a fair value of $320.45. The gap between these figures has sparked fresh interest, especially given recent operational improvements and evolving market dynamics.

The ongoing expansion and maturation of Saia's national terminal network, combined with network densification, is starting to unlock cost efficiencies and higher shipment volumes in new and legacy markets. This is positioning the company for top-line revenue growth and improved operating margins as these facilities move toward scale.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what bold forecasts are baked into this calculation? Find out which future profit margins and growth rates could be powering the upside target. The projections might surprise even seasoned market watchers.

Result: Fair Value of $320.45 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent muted shipment growth and rising operating expenses could challenge Saia’s ability to deliver margin improvements in the quarters ahead.

Find out about the key risks to this Saia narrative.

Another View: Our DCF Model Paints a Different Picture

While analyst targets suggest upside for Saia, our DCF model takes a more conservative stance. According to this approach, Saia appears overvalued at current levels, as the share price trades well above what the model considers fair value. This introduces an interesting split in valuation perspectives: does the market see something the fundamentals miss, or are analyst targets too optimistic?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Saia for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 913 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Saia Narrative

If you see the story differently, or want to test your own assumptions, our tools let you build a personalized outlook in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Saia.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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