Should You Investigate Forward Air Corporation (NASDAQ:FWRD) At US$96.25?

Forward Air Corporation (NASDAQ:FWRD), is not the largest company out there, but it saw a decent share price growth in the teens level on the NASDAQGS over the last few months. As a mid-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. However, could the stock still be trading at a relatively cheap price? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Forward Air’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

See our latest analysis for Forward Air

What is Forward Air worth?

Forward Air is currently expensive based on my price multiple model, where I look at the company's price-to-earnings ratio in comparison to the industry average. In this instance, I’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. I find that Forward Air’s ratio of 18.31x is above its peer average of 11.12x, which suggests the stock is trading at a higher price compared to the Logistics industry. But, is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since Forward Air’s share price is quite volatile, this could mean it can sink lower (or rise even further) in the future, giving us another chance to invest. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.

Can we expect growth from Forward Air?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. In the upcoming year, Forward Air's earnings are expected to increase by 27%, indicating a highly optimistic future ahead. This should lead to more robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has well and truly priced in FWRD’s positive outlook, with shares trading above industry price multiples. However, this brings up another question – is now the right time to sell? If you believe FWRD should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards the industry PE ratio can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on FWRD for a while, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its industry peers, which means it is likely that there is no more upside from mispricing. However, the optimistic prospect is encouraging for FWRD, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

Diving deeper into the forecasts for Forward Air mentioned earlier will help you understand how analysts view the stock going forward. Luckily, you can check out what analysts are forecasting by clicking here.

If you are no longer interested in Forward Air, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.