| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 4/6 |
| Future Growth | 1/6 |
| Past Performance | 4/6 |
| Financial Health | 6/6 |
| Dividends | 4/6 |
EXPD Stock Overview
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.
Expeditors International of Washington Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$107.19 |
| 52 Week High | US$137.80 |
| 52 Week Low | US$92.58 |
| Beta | 0.87 |
| 1 Month Change | 4.84% |
| 3 Month Change | 1.66% |
| 1 Year Change | -12.88% |
| 3 Year Change | 56.89% |
| 5 Year Change | 94.71% |
| Change since IPO | 12,966.96% |
Recent News & Updates
When Should You Buy Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (NASDAQ:EXPD)?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. ( NASDAQ:EXPD ) saw a decent share price growth in the teens level on the...
Expeditors International of Washington: Why It Could Be A Defensive Play
During uncertain periods, it is easier to make decisions on companies with strong financial health. Expeditors International not only has sound financials but recent turbulence has made it very attractive to invest as a business. EXPD has proven itself to be resilient during recessions and has a history of outperformance post recessionary periods. Thesis I think one of the biggest struggles to face as an investor is how invested you need to be during uncertain/recessionary periods. Two statements are usually thrown around - Go for value buys, businesses that you know can survive a downturn in the economy Go for growth plays, stories that have recently fallen out of favor in the general sense but still growing at a brisk pace. Can there be a stock where we can be confident of not only surviving a downturn but also capable of unleashing growth once the economy eventually turns? I recently had the opportunity to look into Expeditors International of Washington, Inc (EXPD) and realized some interesting points on how it could be one of the best defensive plays of the next few years. Ever since its history as a public company Expeditors has exhibited strong financial growth with its performance during and post recessions being remarkable. As evidenced, the company's fortress balance sheet not only allows it to survive well but also be poised for growth once the economic uncertainties end. Recent market gyrations and a company-specific issue (cyber hack) has unfairly punished this stock. Market's fear has played to our advantage. The stock has fallen 23% from its highs and during the same time the company had its strongest first two quarters in its history which makes its valuation very attractive. Price Action and Revenue reported (QOQ) (Tradingview) Company Overview Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. is an asset light, logistics provider that purchases cargo space from carriers (air freight and ocean freight) on a volume basis and resells that space to their customers. They also provide additional transportation services related to order management, customs brokerage, cargo insurance and a full suite of global logistics services with a seamless and integrated information systems to support the movement and strategic positioning of goods. Expeditors aims to understand a customer's logistics and supply chain processes which allows it to identify targeted areas of opportunity for improvement, and deploy the right services and solutions for their customers. Financial Dive I like to analyze companies with a strong history of growing their top and bottom line consistently with a strong focus on the last three years. Average growth in revenue is 29% for the last three years (2019 YE - 2021 YE) Average growth in Net Income is 39% for the last three years (2019 YE - 2021 YE) with EPS more than doubling in the last three years Top and bottom line performance (Tradingview) As an early investor, it is natural to look at growing revenues and EPS and feel wonderful about a business. However, spending some more time to look at certain nuances in the financial statements goes along a far way to making a sound investment. Is Expeditors International prioritizing earnings per share at the cost of cash flows? While it is much easier to manipulate Earnings per share, Cash flow per share is much more difficult to alter which could more accurately portray sustainability of the Expeditors business model. Three year operating cash flow per share has grown at an impressive clip of 56% with 2021 YE operating cash flow at $868 million Has top line growth come at the cost of increased borrowing? Here we want to check if it is "debt fueled growth" that has been driving the top line. Expeditors has been very good at managing debt. In fact, net debt is negative which means that both short term and long term debt is well covered by cash on hand. Over the last three years total debt has remained within a tight range and when compared with total equity is at a ratio of 0.13 Is growth coming from big acquisitions? Lack of organic revenue growth can always be masked by big acquisitions. Here we look at goodwill and see that it has stayed at $8 million in the past few years. If goodwill is big and increasing, it could give us clues that recent acquisitions is what has contributed to revenue growth. It could also mean that if things don’t go as planned it could result in big write-downs. Are revenues being driven by increased spend in sales and marketing? Although, this is not a conventional way to look at things, I like this metric plainly for the reason that "anything will sell if you are spending everything on selling". Here too, when we compare the percentage of sales &marketing spend to revenues it has been minor and trending down for the last couple of years. How is Expeditors International returning value to shareholders? Here we see that EXPD has been buying back stock regularly in addition to paying a consistent dividend. From their recently filed 8-K report All of our products performed well during the quarter and we returned $659 million to shareholders in repurchased stock and dividends. Now this can get tricky if the company is buying back stock or paying dividends through increased borrowing. However, as we saw earlier and also from the recent quarterly statements the company's debt is extremely well managed and therefore not an issue here. Also, looking back on their dividend history, Expeditors has been consistently increasing dividend at least for the last ten years further proving that the company has been very shareholder friendly. I am no forensic financial investigator and there are plenty of ways inorganic top and bottom line growth can be hidden in a financial statement. However, looking at the above four metrics will weed out the "obvious" situations where the quality of financial statement is not up to standard. Financial performance prior to, during, and post recessionary periods Let us see how Expeditors fared in its existence as a publicly listed company during past economic downturns. Gulf War Recession: July 1990 - March 1991 (GDP Decline: 1.5%) Revenue still managed to grow in 1990 although at a much smaller pace than other periods 1989 1990 1991 1992 Revenues YE ($ millions) (Source: Company data) 194 207 254 333 2. Dot-com Recession: March 2001 - November 2001 (GDP Decline: 0.3%) Slight dip in revenues but rebounded sharply the year following the recession 2000 2001 2002 2003 Revenues YE ($ millions) (Source: Company data) 1,695 1,653 2,297 2,625 3. The great Recession: December 2007 - June 2009 (GDP Decline: 4.3%) Noticeable dip in revenues but rebounded sharply the year following the recession 2007 2008 2009 2010 Revenues YE ($ millions) (Source: Company data) 5,235 5,634 4,092 5,968 4. "Name yet to be decided Recession": January 2022 - ? . We have had two consecutive quarters of negative GDP (-1.6% and -0.9%) and the jury is still out on whether we are in a recession. But how has the top line fared in the last two quarters? Expeditors had the best Q1 and Q2 in its history as a public company with QOQ revenues up at 39% and 27% respectively. With all the talks of inflation and wage growth, Expeditors has also been able to grow its bottom line significantly over the same periods
Expeditors Q2 2022 Earnings Preview
Expeditors (NASDAQ:EXPD) is scheduled to announce Q2 earnings results on Tuesday, August 2nd, before market open. EPS Estimate is $2.13 (+15.8% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $4.7B (+30.6% Y/Y). upward revisions and 2 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 7 upward revisions and 0 downward.
Do Expeditors International of Washington's (NASDAQ:EXPD) Earnings Warrant Your Attention?
For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to...
Shareholder Returns
| EXPD | US Logistics | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | 0.03% | 1.6% | 1.4% |
| 1Y | -12.9% | 1.5% | -8.4% |
Return vs Industry: EXPD underperformed the US Logistics industry which returned 1.5% over the past year.
Return vs Market: EXPD underperformed the US Market which returned -8.4% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| EXPD volatility | |
|---|---|
| EXPD Average Weekly Movement | 4.1% |
| Logistics Industry Average Movement | 6.2% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.6% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 17.1% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.1% |
Stable Share Price: EXPD is less volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.
Volatility Over Time: EXPD's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1979 | 19,070 | Jeff Musser | https://www.expeditors.com |
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. provides logistics services in the Americas, North Asia, South Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and India. The company offers airfreight services, such as air freight consolidation and forwarding; ocean freight and ocean services, including ocean freight consolidation, direct ocean forwarding, and order management; customs brokerage, intra-continental ground transportation and delivery, and warehousing and distribution services; and customs clearance, purchase order management, vendor consolidation, time-definite transportation services, temperature-controlled transit, cargo insurance, specialized cargo monitoring and tracking, and other supply chain solutions. It also provides optimization, trade compliance, consulting, cargo security, and solutions.
Expeditors International of Washington Fundamentals Summary
| EXPD fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | US$17.54b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$1.54b |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$18.98b |
11.4x
P/E Ratio0.9x
P/S RatioIs EXPD overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| EXPD income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$18.98b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$16.48b |
| Gross Profit | US$2.50b |
| Other Expenses | US$965.71m |
| Earnings | US$1.54b |
Last Reported Earnings
Jun 30, 2022
Next Earnings Date
Nov 08, 2022
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 9.39 |
| Gross Margin | 13.18% |
| Net Profit Margin | 8.09% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 0% |
How did EXPD perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
1.3%
Current Dividend Yield14%
Payout RatioValuation
Is EXPD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
4/6Valuation Score 4/6
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for EXPD?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
| What is EXPD's n/a Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| n/a Ratio | 0x |
| n/a | n/a |
| Market Cap | US$17.54b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 0.8x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 7.2x |
| PEG Ratio | -1x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does EXPD's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| EXPD PE Ratio vs Peers |
|---|
| Company | PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 20.2x | ||
CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide | 13.2x | -12.2% | US$14.7b |
ZTO ZTO Express (Cayman) | 25.9x | 18.0% | US$21.6b |
FDX FedEx | 15.8x | 15.8% | US$61.0b |
GXO GXO Logistics | 26x | 23.1% | US$5.7b |
EXPD Expeditors International of Washington | 11.4x | -11.4% | US$17.7b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: EXPD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.4x) compared to the peer average (20.2x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does EXPD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Logistics Industry?
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: EXPD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.4x) compared to the US Logistics industry average (12.5x)
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is EXPD's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 11.4x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 10.6x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: EXPD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.6x).
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of EXPD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: EXPD ($107.19) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($142.38)
Significantly Below Fair Value: EXPD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.
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Future Growth
How is Expeditors International of Washington forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 12 analysts?
Future Growth Score
1/6Future Growth Score 1/6
Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE
-11.4%
Forecasted annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: EXPD's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-11.4% per year).
Earnings vs Market: EXPD's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-11.4% per year).
High Growth Earnings: EXPD's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: EXPD's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-8.1% per year).
High Growth Revenue: EXPD's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-8.1% per year).
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: EXPD's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (20.9%)
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Past Performance
How has Expeditors International of Washington performed over the past 5 years?
Past Performance Score
4/6Past Performance Score 4/6
Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE
24.7%
Historical annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue History
Quality Earnings: EXPD has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: EXPD's current net profit margins (8.1%) are lower than last year (8.2%).
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: EXPD's earnings have grown significantly by 24.7% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: EXPD's earnings growth over the past year (54.6%) exceeds its 5-year average (24.7% per year).
Earnings vs Industry: EXPD earnings growth over the past year (54.6%) underperformed the Logistics industry 77.7%.
Return on Equity
High ROE: EXPD's Return on Equity (43.7%) is considered outstanding.
Discover strong past performing companies
Financial Health
How is Expeditors International of Washington's financial position?
Financial Health Score
6/6Financial Health Score 6/6
Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage
Financial Position Analysis
Short Term Liabilities: EXPD's short term assets ($6.3B) exceed its short term liabilities ($3.4B).
Long Term Liabilities: EXPD's short term assets ($6.3B) exceed its long term liabilities ($414.8M).
Debt to Equity History and Analysis
Debt Level: EXPD is debt free.
Reducing Debt: EXPD has not had any debt for past 5 years.
Debt Coverage: EXPD has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.
Interest Coverage: EXPD has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.
Balance Sheet
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Dividend
What is Expeditors International of Washington current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?
Dividend Score
4/6Dividend Score 4/6
Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage
1.25%
Current Dividend Yield
Dividend Yield vs Market
Notable Dividend: EXPD's dividend (1.25%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.47%).
High Dividend: EXPD's dividend (1.25%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.97%).
Stability and Growth of Payments
Stable Dividend: EXPD's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.
Growing Dividend: EXPD's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.
Earnings Payout to Shareholders
Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (13.7%), EXPD's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by earnings.
Cash Payout to Shareholders
Cash Flow Coverage: With its low cash payout ratio (15.9%), EXPD's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.
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Management
How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?
8.2yrs
Average management tenure
CEO
Jeff Musser (56 yo)
8.67yrs
Tenure
US$13,026,304
Compensation
Mr. Jeffrey S. Musser, also known as Jeff, has been the Chief Executive Officer and President of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. since December 19, 2013. Mr. Musser served as Chief Information...
CEO Compensation Analysis
Compensation vs Market: Jeff's total compensation ($USD13.03M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD12.86M).
Compensation vs Earnings: Jeff's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.
Leadership Team
Experienced Management: EXPD's management team is seasoned and experienced (8.2 years average tenure).
Board Members
Experienced Board: EXPD's board of directors are considered experienced (6.3 years average tenure).
Ownership
Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?
Insider Trading Volume
Insider Buying: EXPD insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.
Recent Insider Transactions
Ownership Breakdown
Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.
Top Shareholders
Company Information
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources
Key Information
- Name: Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.
- Ticker: EXPD
- Exchange: NasdaqGS
- Founded: 1979
- Industry: Air Freight and Logistics
- Sector: Transportation
- Implied Market Cap: US$17.536b
- Shares outstanding: 163.60m
- Website: https://www.expeditors.com
Number of Employees
Location
- Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.
- 1015 Third Avenue
- Seattle
- Washington
- 98104
- United States
Listings
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2022/08/19 00:00 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2022/08/19 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2022/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2021/12/31 |
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.