Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On Allegiant Travel Company's (NASDAQ:ALGT) Third-Quarter Report

Last week saw the newest quarterly earnings release from Allegiant Travel Company (NASDAQ:ALGT), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Allegiant Travel reported revenues of US$562m, in line with expectations, but it unfortunately also reported (statutory) losses of US$2.05 per share, which were slightly larger than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Allegiant Travel

After the latest results, the nine analysts covering Allegiant Travel are now predicting revenues of US$2.78b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Allegiant Travel is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$4.92 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.79b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.96 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$59.60. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Allegiant Travel, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$80.00 and the most bearish at US$45.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Allegiant Travel's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 8.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 14% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Allegiant Travel's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Allegiant Travel going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Allegiant Travel that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.