Rogers (ROG) Valuation Check as Revenue and Profitability Continue to Slide Over Recent Years

Rogers (ROG) is back on investors’ radar after a stretch of weakening fundamentals, with customers delaying orders, revenue sliding about 7% a year, and profitability metrics trending the wrong way.

See our latest analysis for Rogers.

Even with fundamentals under pressure, Rogers' latest share price of $87.39 and a roughly 4% 3 month share price return suggest sentiment has stabilized a bit. However, the roughly 18% 1 year total shareholder return loss shows long term momentum is still fading.

If this kind of reset has you rethinking your exposure to tech hardware names, it could be a good moment to explore high growth tech and AI stocks for fresher growth stories and different risk profiles.

So with revenues shrinking, margins under strain, and the stock still trading at a modest discount to analyst targets, is Rogers quietly setting up a value opportunity, or is the market correctly pricing in weaker future growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 9.6% Undervalued

With Rogers last closing at $87.39 against a narrative fair value near $96.67, the prevailing view sees modest upside if long term assumptions hold.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $80.0 for Rogers based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $921.6 million, earnings will come to $83.3 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 19.5x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.2%.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how steady but unspectacular revenue growth, a swing from losses to profits, and a rerated earnings multiple combine into that upside path? The missing detail is in the underlying assumptions and the timing of that margin rebuild. Want to see what the narrative thinks Rogers must deliver to earn that valuation?

Result: Fair Value of $96.67 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, that upside depends on EV demand stabilizing and restructuring delivering savings, as weaker growth or execution slip ups could undercut the margin recovery story.

Find out about the key risks to this Rogers narrative.

Another Lens on Valuation

Our SWS DCF model paints a very different picture, putting Rogers fair value near $16.16 per share, which makes the current $87.39 price look rich rather than cheap. If future cash flows fall short, could today’s apparent upside vanish faster than expected?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Build Your Own Rogers Narrative

If you would rather challenge these assumptions with your own numbers and perspective, you can quickly build a personalized view in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Rogers research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Ready for more investment ideas?

Relying on one name can limit your upside, so use the Simply Wall St Screener to hunt for fresh opportunities before the market spots them.

• Lock in potential bargains early by scanning these 895 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that market sentiment has overlooked, while their cash flows tell a very different story.
• Ride powerful tech trends by focusing on these 27 AI penny stocks that could benefit most as artificial intelligence spending accelerates worldwide.
• Strengthen your income stream by targeting these 15 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that may balance growth ambitions with reliable cash returns.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com