Investing in Ciena (NYSE:CIEN) five years ago would have delivered you a 149% gain

By
Simply Wall St
Published
April 19, 2022
NYSE:CIEN
Source: Shutterstock

Ciena Corporation (NYSE:CIEN) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 20% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that shareholders have received really good returns over the last five years. It's fair to say most would be happy with 149% the gain in that time. Generally speaking the long term returns will give you a better idea of business quality than short periods can. Only time will tell if there is still too much optimism currently reflected in the share price.

So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.

View our latest analysis for Ciena

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Over half a decade, Ciena managed to grow its earnings per share at 39% a year. This EPS growth is higher than the 20% average annual increase in the share price. Therefore, it seems the market has become relatively pessimistic about the company.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growth
NYSE:CIEN Earnings Per Share Growth April 19th 2022

It is of course excellent to see how Ciena has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. This free interactive report on Ciena's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Ciena shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 1.7% over one year. Having said that, the five-year TSR of 20% a year, is even better. The pessimistic view would be that be that the stock has its best days behind it, but on the other hand the price might simply be moderating while the business itself continues to execute. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Ciena .

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

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