Arlo Technologies (ARLO): Valuation Check After CEO’s Continued Insider Share Sales

Arlo Technologies (ARLO) is back in focus after CEO Matthew Mcrae sold another 257,242 shares on December 1, extending a year long streak of insider selling with no offsetting buys.

See our latest analysis for Arlo Technologies.

The latest sale comes as Arlo’s share price, now at $13.89, has swung from a strong year to date share price return to a sharp pullback in recent weeks. However, multi year total shareholder returns still point to powerful underlying momentum rather than a story that has fully run its course.

If this kind of volatility has you thinking about what else is out there, it could be a good moment to explore high growth tech and AI stocks for other tech names with different risk and growth profiles.

With Arlo still trading below Wall Street targets despite strong multi year returns and improving profitability, the key question now is whether investors are overlooking remaining upside or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 40.1% Undervalued

Against Arlo Technologies’ last close at $13.89, the most followed narrative pins fair value much higher, framing today’s pullback as a potential mispricing.

Continual migration of subscribers to higher-priced AI-driven service tiers (Arlo Secure 6) and the corresponding increase in ARPU (now over $15, up 26% y/y) reinforces the long-term shift to recurring, high-margin (85% non-GAAP service margin) subscription revenue. This supports expanding net margins and earnings visibility.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how a smart-home hardware name ends up with software style margins and a rich future earnings multiple baked in? Want to see the growth math behind that confidence?

Result: Fair Value of $23.20 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, sustained hardware price pressure and intensifying competition from larger platforms could squeeze margins and slow subscriber growth, which may challenge the optimistic undervaluation case.

Find out about the key risks to this Arlo Technologies narrative.

Build Your Own Arlo Technologies Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can shape a custom view in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Arlo Technologies research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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