US$9.50: That's What Analysts Think Aeva Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:AEVA) Is Worth After Its Latest Results

Last week, you might have seen that Aeva Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:AEVA) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.7% to US$3.16 in the past week. The business exceeded revenue expectations with sales of US$1.1m coming in 4.8% ahead of forecasts. Statutory losses were US$0.15 a share, in line with what the analysts predicted. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Aeva Technologies

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the eight analysts covering Aeva Technologies, is for revenues of US$9.03m in 2022, which would reflect an uncomfortable 11% reduction in Aeva Technologies' sales over the past 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 33% to US$0.71 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$9.08m and losses of US$0.72 per share in 2022.

As a result, it's unexpected to see that the consensus price target fell 7.3% to US$9.50, with the analysts seemingly becoming more concerned about ongoing losses, despite making no major changes to their forecasts. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Aeva Technologies analyst has a price target of US$20.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$5.00. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 14% by the end of 2022. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 118% over the last year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 7.3% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Aeva Technologies' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Aeva Technologies' future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Aeva Technologies going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Aeva Technologies you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.