Is It Too Late To Consider TTM Technologies (TTMI) After Its Sharp Share Price Surge?

• If you are wondering whether TTM Technologies at around US$121.49 still offers value, you are not alone. The stock’s recent performance has put valuation firmly in the spotlight.
• The share price moves have been strong, with returns of 26.9% over 7 days, 34.0% over 30 days, 72.1% year to date, and a very large 1 year gain that is several multiples of the starting point, as well as substantial 3 year and 5 year returns.
• Recent coverage has focused on TTM Technologies as investors look for context around these sharp moves, including how current expectations line up with its established role in the technology sector. This backdrop has raised fresh questions about whether the current price fairly reflects the company’s fundamentals or builds in a premium based on sentiment.
• On Simply Wall St’s valuation model, TTM Technologies currently has a valuation score of 1 out of 6. Next you will see how different valuation approaches assess the stock today and then finish with a framework that can help you think about value more clearly over the long term.

TTM Technologies scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: TTM Technologies Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model projects a company’s future cash flows and then discounts those back to today’s dollars to estimate what the business might be worth now.

For TTM Technologies, the model uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is $47.41 million, and analysts supply cash flow estimates out to 2027, with Simply Wall St extrapolating figures out to 2035. By 2027, free cash flow is projected at $204.95 million, and the ten year path includes additional projected values through to 2035, all in $.

When these cash flows are discounted and summed, the resulting intrinsic value is $130.15 per share. Compared with the current share price of about $121.49, the DCF points to an implied 6.7% discount, which sits comfortably within a normal margin of error rather than signaling a clear bargain or clear premium.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

TTM Technologies is fairly valued according to our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), but this can change at a moment's notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for TTM Technologies.

Approach 2: TTM Technologies Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about value because it links what you pay for each share to the earnings that business is currently generating. A higher or lower P/E often reflects what the market is willing to pay given its view of the company’s growth potential and the risks around those earnings, so a “normal” or “fair” P/E tends to rise with stronger expected growth and fall when risks look higher.

TTM Technologies is currently trading on a P/E of 71.10x. That compares with an Electronic industry average P/E of about 31.56x and a peer group average of 41.39x, so the stock is priced at a higher multiple than both its industry and peers. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for TTM Technologies is 55.06x, which is the P/E level its model suggests based on factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, market cap, risk profile and the company’s industry.

This Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple comparison with peers or the wider industry because it adjusts for company specific characteristics rather than assuming one size fits all. With the current P/E of 71.10x sitting above the 55.06x Fair Ratio, the shares look expensive relative to this framework.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your TTM Technologies Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to think about valuation, so Narratives are worth a look because they let you attach a clear story to your numbers, linking what you believe about TTM Technologies’ markets, margins and growth to a forecast and then to a Fair Value that you can compare with the current price.

On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives are an easy tool you can use to set out your own view of future revenue, earnings and margins, see what Fair Value that implies, and then decide whether a gap between Fair Value and price suggests it is time to be patient or to act.

Narratives do not stay static. They update when new information such as earnings, guidance or news on areas like TTM Technologies’ AI related demand, aerospace and defense backlog, or capacity ramps in Penang and Syracuse flows into the models.

For example, one TTM Technologies Narrative currently anchors on a Fair Value of US$123.00 with assumptions closer to the more optimistic analyst cohort. Another uses a Fair Value of US$72.00 with more cautious assumptions. Seeing those side by side helps you decide which story about the company fits your own expectations best.

For TTM Technologies, however, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading TTM Technologies Narratives:

🐂 TTM Technologies Bull Case

Fair Value: US$123.00

Gap to Fair Value vs current price: TTM Technologies trades at about 3.2% below this narrative Fair Value based on the last close of US$121.49.

Revenue growth assumption: 17.36% a year.

• This bullish view leans on AI related demand in data centers and networking, plus a US$1.46b aerospace and defense backlog, to support a larger revenue base over time.
• It assumes profit margins step up meaningfully as Penang, the second Malaysia facility and the Ultra HDI Syracuse plant ramp, and as higher complexity PCB work supports pricing.
• The Fair Value of US$123.00 reflects analyst expectations for higher earnings by 2029 and a future P/E of 26.2x, with risks centered on end market demand, capital intensity and execution at new sites.

🐻 TTM Technologies Bear Case

Fair Value: US$118.50

Gap to Fair Value vs current price: TTM Technologies trades at about 2.5% above this narrative Fair Value based on the last close of US$121.49.

Revenue growth assumption: 16.70% a year.

• This more cautious view still leans on AI, cloud and defense demand and a US$1.46b backlog, but gives more weight to higher operating costs and capital spending needs.
• It builds in margin improvement from higher value engineered solutions and new capacity in Penang, Syracuse and Wisconsin, while highlighting execution risks and customer concentration.
• The Fair Value of US$118.50 relies on earnings reaching US$600.9m by 2029 and a 27.5x P/E, with potential pressure from slower facility ramp ups, cost inflation and geopolitical exposure.

These two Narratives bracket a fairly tight Fair Value range, so the real decision point for you is which set of growth, margin and risk assumptions feels closer to how you think TTM Technologies will perform over the next few years.

Do you think there's more to the story for TTM Technologies? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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