SuperCom's (NASDAQ:SPCB) Profits Appear To Have Quality Issues

The market for SuperCom Ltd.'s (NASDAQ:SPCB) stock was strong after it released a healthy earnings report last week. However, we think that shareholders should be cautious as we found some worrying factors underlying the profit.

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Zooming In On SuperCom's Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

SuperCom has an accrual ratio of 0.28 for the year to December 2025. Unfortunately, that means its free cash flow fell significantly short of its reported profits. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of US$8.6m despite its profit of US$3.75m, mentioned above. We also note that SuperCom's free cash flow was actually negative last year as well, so we could understand if shareholders were bothered by its outflow of US$8.6m. Notably, the company has issued new shares, thus diluting existing shareholders and reducing their share of future earnings.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

To understand the value of a company's earnings growth, it is imperative to consider any dilution of shareholders' interests. SuperCom expanded the number of shares on issue by 31% over the last year. As a result, its net income is now split between a greater number of shares. Per share metrics like EPS help us understand how much actual shareholders are benefitting from the company's profits, while the net income level gives us a better view of the company's absolute size. You can see a chart of SuperCom's EPS by clicking here.

How Is Dilution Impacting SuperCom's Earnings Per Share (EPS)?

SuperCom was losing money three years ago. The good news is that profit was up 467% in the last twelve months. On the other hand, earnings per share are only up 116% over the same period. Therefore, one can observe that the dilution is having a fairly profound effect on shareholder returns.

In the long term, earnings per share growth should beget share price growth. So SuperCom shareholders will want to see that EPS figure continue to increase. But on the other hand, we'd be far less excited to learn profit (but not EPS) was improving. For that reason, you could say that EPS is more important that net income in the long run, assuming the goal is to assess whether a company's share price might grow.

Our Take On SuperCom's Profit Performance

As it turns out, SuperCom couldn't match its profit with cashflow and its dilution means that earnings per share growth is lagging net income growth. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at SuperCom's statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for SuperCom you should be mindful of and 2 of these are potentially serious.

Our examination of SuperCom has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.