ScanSource, Inc. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

As you might know, ScanSource, Inc. (NASDAQ:SCSC) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$767m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 11%, coming in at just US$0.75 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, ScanSource's three analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be US$3.06b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$3.45, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$3.14b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.51 in 2026. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.

View our latest analysis for ScanSource

The consensus has reconfirmed its price target of US$51.67, showing that the analysts don't expect weaker revenue expectations next year to have a material impact on ScanSource's market value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic ScanSource analyst has a price target of US$62.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$43.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the ScanSource's past performance and to peers in the same industry. For example, we noticed that ScanSource's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 2.3% growth to the end of 2026 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 1.0% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 11% per year. Although ScanSource's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are still bearish on the business, forecasting it to grow slower than the broader industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Still, earnings per share are more important to value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target held steady at US$51.67, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple ScanSource analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for ScanSource that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.