Napco Security Technologies Future Growth
Future criteria checks 3/6
Napco Security Technologies is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 30.7% and 8.9% per annum respectively while EPS is expected to grow by 32.9% per annum.
Key information
30.7%
Earnings growth rate
32.92%
EPS growth rate
| Electronic earnings growth | 25.4% |
| Revenue growth rate | 8.9% |
| Future return on equity | n/a |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 05 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Analysis Article • May 08
Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On Napco Security Technologies, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:NSSC) Third-Quarter Report
It's been a good week for Napco Security Technologies, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NSSC ) shareholders, because the company has just...Analysis Article • Nov 07
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. Just Missed EPS By 10.0%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
As you might know, Napco Security Technologies, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NSSC ) last week released its latest quarterly, and...Recent updates
Narrative Update • May 06
NSSC: Index Additions And SaaS Expansion Will Drive Future Upside Potential
Analysts have lifted their price target on Napco Security Technologies by about $1 to $50, citing updated views on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions reflected in recent Street research. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts point to the raised price target of about $50 as a reflection of updated views on fair value, tying the new target to revised assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins and the future P/E applied to the stock.Seeking Alpha • May 05
Napco Q3: Fair-Value Entry Point Before A Potential 2027 Inflection (Rating Upgrade)
Summary Napco Security Technologies (NSSC) earns a Buy rating due to strong recurring revenue growth and robust operational performance. Q3 revenue grew 11.8% YoY, with recurring service revenue up 15.4% and representing 51% of total revenue, supported by 90.4% gross margins. NSSC's balance sheet is fortified with $114.4M in cash and $10.5M in marketable securities against $44.2M liabilities, offering operational resilience. The MVP cloud-based platform could drive a 2027 sentiment lift and 2028 fundamental acceleration if it successfully expands recurring revenue streams. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Apr 21
NSSC: Fair Outlook Will Depend On Index Additions And Capital Returns
Analysts kept Napco Security Technologies' price target steady at $49.67, citing only modest tweaks to inputs such as discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions rather than any major shift in the investment case. What's in the News Napco is scheduled to showcase its full security portfolio at ISC West 2026, highlighting its four core brands, expanded StarLink intrusion and fire communicators with 5G and multi carrier support, and its MVP cloud ecosystem for security, access, and video integration (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Apr 07
NSSC: Cloud Ecosystem And Index Inclusion Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have maintained their $48.00 price target for Napco Security Technologies, citing broadly consistent assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E as the basis for their current view. What's in the News Napco Security Technologies is scheduled to participate in ISC West 2026, presenting its full security portfolio in a 2,500 sq.Narrative Update • Mar 24
NSSC: Recurring Cloud Services And RMR Focus Will Drive Future Upside
Analysts have kept their $48.00 price target on Napco Security Technologies unchanged, citing largely consistent assumptions around the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E multiple. What's in the News Napco Security Technologies is scheduled to participate in ISC West 2026, highlighting its "all under one roof" security portfolio across four core brands at a 2,500 sq.Narrative Update • Mar 09
NSSC: Higher Margin Outlook And Dividend Policy Will Support Upside
Analysts have lifted their price target on Napco Security Technologies from $36.00 to $48.00, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth of 9.71%, a profit margin of 25.16% and a future P/E of 33.43 as key drivers behind the higher fair value estimate. What's in the News Board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share, a 7% increase from the prior quarter, payable on April 3, 2026 to shareholders of record on March 12, 2026 (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Feb 23
NSSC: Fair Outlook Will Rely On Dividend And Buyback Support
Analysts have nudged their price target for Napco Security Technologies up by about $1 to $49.67, reflecting updated assumptions around fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E. What's in the News The board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share, a 7% increase from the previous quarter, payable on April 3, 2026, to shareholders of record on March 12, 2026 (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Feb 09
NSSC: Higher Margins And Dividend Growth Will Support Earnings Durability
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Napco Security Technologies from $50.00 to $52.00, reflecting updated assumptions that include a revised discount rate, adjustments to revenue growth expectations, a higher profit margin forecast, and a slightly higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News Board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share, a 7% increase from the prior quarter, payable on April 3, 2026 to shareholders of record on March 12, 2026 (Key Developments).Analysis Article • Feb 05
Napco Security Technologies' (NASDAQ:NSSC) Dividend Will Be Increased To $0.15
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NSSC ) has announced that it will be increasing its dividend from last...Narrative Update • Jan 25
NSSC: Recurring Quarterly Beats Will Support Higher Confidence In Earnings Durability
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Napco Security Technologies to $50 from $45, citing recent research that highlights recurring quarterly beats and stronger equipment sales as key supports for a higher price target and slightly richer future P/E and margin assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has turned more constructive on Napco Security Technologies, with bullish analysts highlighting consistent quarterly beats and stronger equipment sales as key reasons for raising fair value estimates.Narrative Update • Jan 11
NSSC: Sustained Estimate Beats And Equipment Demand Should Support Further Outperformance
Analysts have raised their price target on Napco Security Technologies by $7 to $50, citing recent estimate beats, faster equipment sales growth, and increased confidence in both near-term and long-term performance. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are pointing to recent estimate beats and quicker equipment sales growth as key reasons for their higher conviction in Napco Security Technologies.Narrative Update • Dec 22
NSSC: Accelerating Equipment Sales Should Sustain Outperformance Into Fiscal 2026
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Napco Security Technologies to $50.00, citing the company’s repeated quarterly beats, accelerating equipment sales growth, and an increasingly favorable setup into FY26 as key drivers of renewed near term and long term conviction. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts highlight the third consecutive quarterly beat as evidence that Napco is executing well against expectations, supporting a higher valuation multiple.Narrative Update • Dec 08
NSSC: Accelerating Equipment Sales Will Drive Continued Outperformance Through Fiscal 2026
Analysts have nudged their price target for Napco Security Technologies higher, to about $50 per share from the low $40s, citing accelerating equipment sales, a pattern of quarterly beats, and growing confidence in the company’s setup through FY26. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates reflect a broadly constructive stance on Napco Security Technologies, with several firms lifting ratings and targets as earnings and revenue trends continue to exceed expectations.Narrative Update • Nov 24
NSSC: Equipment Sales Acceleration Will Drive Outperformance Into Fiscal 2026
Analysts have raised their price target for Napco Security Technologies from approximately $47.67 to $48.83 per share. They cite the company’s consistent quarterly beats and accelerating equipment sales growth as key drivers for the upward revision.Narrative Update • Nov 08
NSSC: Accelerating Equipment Sales Will Support Stronger Momentum Into Fiscal 2026
Analysts have raised their price target for Napco Security Technologies from $44.50 to approximately $47.67 per share. They cite continued outperformance, accelerating equipment sales, and improved conviction in both near- and longer-term prospects as key factors.Narrative Update • Oct 25
Demand Momentum And Service Revenue Expansion Will Drive Greater Resilience Ahead
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Napco Security Technologies from $43 to $44.50 per share. They cite improved revenue growth, expanding profit margins, and heightened optimism for fiscal year 2026 following stronger-than-expected recent performance.Narrative Update • Oct 11
Wireless And Cloud Trends Will Secure Resilient Market Position
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Napco Security Technologies to $43.00. This reflects optimism about stronger revenue growth and improved demand trends highlighted in recent research updates.Analysis Article • Aug 31
What Napco Security Technologies, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:NSSC) 26% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You
Despite an already strong run, Napco Security Technologies, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NSSC ) shares have been powering on, with a...Narrative Update • Aug 27
Introducing MVP Hosted Access And Prima Security Systems Will Drive Future Market Expansion
Napco Security Technologies' consensus price target has been revised upward to $37.50 as analysts cite strong Q4 outperformance, accelerating high-margin recurring revenue, improved equipment demand, and margin expansion from StarLink services, despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. Analyst Commentary Strong Q4 performance with revenue and EPS exceeding expectations, driven by equipment outperformance and high-margin recurring service revenue accelerating to its highest sequential growth in six quarters.Analysis Article • Jul 14
Napco Security Technologies (NASDAQ:NSSC) Is Achieving High Returns On Its Capital
What trends should we look for it we want to identify stocks that can multiply in value over the long term? Firstly...Analysis Article • May 09
There's Reason For Concern Over Napco Security Technologies, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:NSSC) Massive 32% Price Jump
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NSSC ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 32% after a shaky...Analysis Article • May 08
Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On Napco Security Technologies, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:NSSC) Third-Quarter Report
It's been a good week for Napco Security Technologies, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NSSC ) shareholders, because the company has just...Seeking Alpha • Apr 23
Napco Security: Recession-Resistant Business With A Fortress Balance Sheet And Zero Debt
Summary Napco Security's services segment, driven by StarLink radios, has grown at a 34% CAGR since 2019, now representing nearly 80% of gross profits. The shift from POTS to cellular radios creates substantial retrofit demand, with 4 million US buildings yet to upgrade, offering significant growth potential. Despite recent weak equipment sales, radio sales have surged 93% YoY, indicating future services revenue growth and improving operating margins. With a strong balance sheet and recession-resistant business model, NAPCO is projected to achieve $2.50 EPS by 2026, targeting a share price of $40. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Apr 15
Here's Why We Think Napco Security Technologies (NASDAQ:NSSC) Might Deserve Your Attention Today
It's common for many investors, especially those who are inexperienced, to buy shares in companies with a good story...Analysis Article • Mar 31
Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:NSSC)?
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NSSC ), might not be a large cap stock, but it received a lot of attention...Seeking Alpha • Mar 13
Napco Security Technologies: The Extended Dip Is A Good Entry Point
Summary Napco Security Technologies is transitioning from hardware sales to high-margin recurring service revenue, which is expected to drive margin expansion and shareholder returns. Despite a 37% dip in share price, Napco's strong balance sheet, with no debt and nearly $100 million in cash, positions it well for growth. Q2 2025 results show a 14.4% YoY increase in recurring service revenue, now making up 49% of total revenue, highlighting the successful pivot. Risks include prolonged weakness in equipment sales and the need for continuous innovation, but the long-term growth story remains compelling. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Mar 10
We Like Napco Security Technologies' (NASDAQ:NSSC) Returns And Here's How They're Trending
Did you know there are some financial metrics that can provide clues of a potential multi-bagger? Amongst other things...Analysis Article • Feb 08
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:NSSC) May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon With Recent 27% Price Plummet
Unfortunately for some shareholders, the Napco Security Technologies, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NSSC ) share price has dived 27% in...Analysis Article • Dec 23
Earnings Not Telling The Story For Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:NSSC)
When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 18x, you may...Seeking Alpha • Dec 12
Napco Security Technologies: Unlocking Profitable Growth
Summary Napco Security Technologies focuses on electronic security devices, with strong growth in recurring service revenues and StarLink radio sales. Q1'25 results showed a 6% increase in sales, with a 91% gross margin on service revenues, despite a temporary decline in locking hardware sales. New products like the Prima security panel and StarLink Fire Max 2 communicator boost Napco's market position and recurring revenue potential. Napco maintains a debt-free financial position, providing flexibility for future investments, stock buybacks, or acquisitions. The valuation is attractive with a forward P/E of 26.9x for FY'25 and 21.1x for FY'26, which is justified given profitable growth ahead. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Nov 24
If EPS Growth Is Important To You, Napco Security Technologies (NASDAQ:NSSC) Presents An Opportunity
The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even...Analysis Article • Nov 07
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. Just Missed EPS By 10.0%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
As you might know, Napco Security Technologies, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NSSC ) last week released its latest quarterly, and...Analysis Article • Oct 29
We Think Napco Security Technologies (NASDAQ:NSSC) Might Have The DNA Of A Multi-Bagger
If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...Analysis Article • Oct 15
At US$40.42, Is Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:NSSC) Worth Looking At Closely?
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NSSC ), is not the largest company out there, but it saw a double-digit...Seeking Alpha • Oct 02
Napco: Use The Dip To Buy This Quality Business
Summary Small-cap professional security specialist Napco Security has delivered almost 3x the return of other small-caps over the past year. Napco tilts more to the commercial security market which is likely to benefit from renewed planning momentum. Napco has a lot of fundamentally strong characteristics including a dependable recurring revenue base, margin progression, an exemplary balance sheet, strong cash flow generation, and shareholder returns. After looking overextended for long periods, the stock has now retraced to more attractive levels, where even the forward EV/EBITDA valuations look compelling. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Sep 13
Innovative Security Solutions Spearhead Stable Growth And Attract Investors
Continuous growth in recurring revenue from subscription services suggests an expanding base of stable, high-margin income, enhancing profitability.Analysis Article • Sep 06
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:NSSC) Shares May Have Slumped 31% But Getting In Cheap Is Still Unlikely
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NSSC ) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been...Analysis Article • Aug 30
Napco Security Technologies (NASDAQ:NSSC) Is Increasing Its Dividend To $0.125
Napco Security Technologies, Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:NSSC ) dividend will be increasing from last year's payment of the same...Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/30/2027 | 219 | 58 | 59 | 64 | 6 |
| 6/30/2026 | 199 | 50 | 46 | 58 | 5 |
| 3/31/2026 | 197 | 37 | 56 | 58 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 192 | 47 | 54 | 55 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 187 | 44 | 52 | 53 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 182 | 43 | 51 | 54 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 181 | 45 | 51 | 53 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 187 | 48 | 49 | 52 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 191 | 51 | 44 | 46 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 189 | 50 | 44 | 45 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 183 | 47 | 42 | 43 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 177 | 43 | 39 | 42 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 172 | 35 | 35 | 38 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 170 | 27 | 22 | 25 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 169 | 24 | 9 | 12 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 161 | 18 | 0 | 2 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 152 | 15 | 2 | 3 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 144 | 20 | 7 | 8 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 136 | 18 | 13 | 15 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 128 | 19 | 20 | 22 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 122 | 21 | 21 | 23 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 114 | 15 | 22 | 23 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 102 | 7 | 19 | 20 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 100 | 7 | 13 | 14 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 98 | 8 | 10 | 11 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 101 | 8 | 9 | 10 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 108 | 15 | 8 | 10 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 107 | 15 | N/A | 7 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 106 | 14 | N/A | 8 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 103 | 12 | N/A | 9 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 101 | 11 | N/A | 9 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 98 | 10 | N/A | 11 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 94 | 8 | N/A | 9 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 92 | 8 | N/A | 8 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 90 | 7 | N/A | 6 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 89 | 6 | N/A | 2 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 88 | 6 | N/A | 2 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 87 | 6 | N/A | 2 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 86 | 6 | N/A | 4 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 85 | 6 | N/A | 9 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 85 | 6 | N/A | 9 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 83 | 6 | N/A | 9 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 81 | 6 | N/A | 7 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 80 | 5 | N/A | 5 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 79 | 5 | N/A | 4 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 78 | 5 | N/A | 4 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: NSSC's forecast earnings growth (30.7% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: NSSC's earnings (30.7% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (16.7% per year).
High Growth Earnings: NSSC's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: NSSC's revenue (8.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.6% per year).
High Growth Revenue: NSSC's revenue (8.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if NSSC's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/14 08:58 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/14 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/06/30 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
|
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. is covered by 12 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Gary Mobley | Benchmark Company |
| Thomas Walkley | Canaccord Genuity |
| Chad Bennett | Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC |