NYSE:TWLO

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Twilio Inc. provides a cloud communications platform that enables developers to build, scale, and operate communications within software applications in the United States and internationally.

Rewards

Revenue is forecast to grow 22.43% per year

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of -10.6% per year for the next 3 years

Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years

Highly volatile share price over past 3 months

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year



Snowflake Analysis

Adequate balance sheet with limited growth.


Similar Companies

Microsoft

NasdaqGS:MSFT

Share Price & News

How has Twilio's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: TWLO's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

1.6%

TWLO

2.1%

US IT

1.5%

US Market


1 Year Return

19.6%

TWLO

37.2%

US IT

20.1%

US Market

Return vs Industry: TWLO underperformed the US IT industry which returned 37.2% over the past year.

Return vs Market: TWLO matched the US Market which returned 20.1% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

TWLOIndustryMarket
7 Day1.6%2.1%1.5%
30 Day7.0%4.4%1.4%
90 Day24.0%13.9%8.7%
1 Year19.6%19.6%38.6%37.2%22.7%20.1%
3 Year294.9%294.9%112.3%103.1%50.1%40.5%
5 Yearn/a148.0%125.8%73.1%54.1%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Twilio's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Twilio undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

4.11x

Price to Book (PB) ratio


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: TWLO ($127.74) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($91.02)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TWLO is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: TWLO is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the IT industry average.

PE vs Market: TWLO is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the US market.


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate TWLO's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: TWLO is good value based on its PB Ratio (4.1x) compared to the US IT industry average (4.3x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Twilio forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 25 analysts?

-10.6%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: TWLO is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Earnings vs Market: TWLO is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

High Growth Earnings: TWLO is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: TWLO's revenue (22.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: TWLO's revenue (22.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: TWLO's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (2.7%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Twilio performed over the past 5 years?

-48.5%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: TWLO is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: TWLO is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: TWLO is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of -48.5% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare TWLO's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: TWLO is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the IT industry (12%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: TWLO has a negative Return on Equity (-7.18%), as it is currently unprofitable.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Twilio's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: TWLO's short term assets ($2.1B) exceed its short term liabilities ($247.2M).

Long Term Liabilities: TWLO's short term assets ($2.1B) exceed its long term liabilities ($623.9M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: TWLO's debt to equity ratio (10.7%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if TWLO's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: TWLO has a low level of unsold assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: TWLO's debt is covered by short term assets (assets are 4.5x debt).


Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: TWLO has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if TWLO has enough cash runway if its free cash flow continues to grow or shrink based on historical rates.


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Twilio's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?


Dividend Yield vs Market

companyn/amarketbottom25%1.4%markettop25%3.7%industryaverage1.2%forecastin3Years0%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate TWLO's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate TWLO's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if TWLO's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if TWLO's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of TWLO's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the US market.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.8yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Jeff Lawson (42yo)

11.8yrs

Tenure

US$6,597,956

Compensation

Mr. Jeffrey Lawson, also known as Jeff, has been Director of SendGrid Inc. since February 1, 2019. Mr. Lawson co-founded Twilio Inc. in 2008 and has been its Chief Executive Officer since April 2008 and Ch ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Jeff's total compensation ($USD6.60M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD10.81M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Jeff's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Jeffrey Lawson
Co-Founder11.8yrsUS$6.60m5.08% $889.7m
Khozema Shipchandler
Chief Financial Officer1.3yrsUS$14.76m0.061% $10.6m
George Hu
Chief Operating Officer3yrsUS$6.83m0.0049% $849.7k
Karyn Smith
General Counsel & Corporate Secretary5.4yrsUS$2.37m0.0043% $755.1k
John Wolthuis
Co-Founder & Board Observer0yrsno data1.18% $206.1m
Ott Kaukver
Chief Technology Officer1.1yrsno datano data
Andrew Zilli
Vice President of Investor Relations0yrsno datano data
Sara Varni
Chief Marketing Officer2.1yrsno datano data
Marty Réaume
Chief People Officer2.6yrsno datano data
Marc Boroditsky
Senior VP of Sales2.8yrsno datano data

2.8yrs

Average Tenure

45yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: TWLO's management team is considered experienced (2.8 years average tenure).


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Jeffrey Lawson
Co-Founder11.8yrsUS$6.60m5.08% $889.7m
John Wolthuis
Co-Founder & Board Observer0yrsno data1.18% $206.1m
Jeffrey Immelt
Director0.7yrsno data0.0062% $1.1m
Richard Dalzell
Non-Employee Director5.9yrsUS$273.81k0.0072% $1.3m
Jeffrey Epstein
Lead Independent Director2.2yrsUS$286.81k0.025% $4.4m
Donna Dubinsky
Independent Director1.2yrsUS$485.75k0.0035% $618.5k
Elena Donio
Non-Employee Director4yrsUS$277.81k0.020% $3.5m
Erika Rottenberg
Independent Director3.7yrsUS$284.81k0.022% $3.9m
Byron Deeter
Non-Employee Director9.3yrsUS$259.81k0.38% $66.4m

3.8yrs

Average Tenure

59.5yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: TWLO's board of directors are considered experienced (3.8 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: TWLO insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 33.9%.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Twilio Inc.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Twilio Inc.
  • Ticker: TWLO
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 2008
  • Industry: Internet Services and Infrastructure
  • Sector: Software
  • Market Cap: US$17.520b
  • Shares outstanding: 137.15m
  • Website: https://www.twilio.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Twilio Inc.
  • 375 Beale Street
  • Suite 300
  • San Francisco
  • California
  • 94105
  • United States

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
TWLONYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesClass A common StockUSUSDJun 2016
TWHDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesClass A common StockDEEURJun 2016
TWLO *BMV (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores)YesClass A common StockMXMXNJun 2016
0LHLLSE (London Stock Exchange)YesClass A common StockGBUSDJun 2016
TWLOWBAG (Wiener Boerse AG)YesClass A common StockATEURJun 2016

Biography

Twilio Inc. provides a cloud communications platform that enables developers to build, scale, and operate communications within software applications in the United States and internationally. The company’s programmable communications cloud provides a set of application programming interfaces that enable developers to embed voice, messaging, and video capabilities into their applications. Twilio Inc. was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California. 


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/02/17 01:27
End of Day Share Price2020/02/14 00:00
Earnings2019/12/31
Annual Earnings2019/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.