How Surging Quantum Bookings and Big Contracts Could Shape D-Wave Quantum’s (QBTS) Investment Narrative

• D-Wave Quantum Inc. recently reported fourth-quarter 2025 sales of US$2.75 million and a quarterly net loss of US$42.33 million, while also highlighting major new bookings that already exceed its entire fiscal 2025 total.
• Large contracts, including a US$20 million deal with Florida Atlantic University and a two-year, US$10 million quantum-compute-as-a-service agreement with a Fortune 100 company, underline how quickly its commercial pipeline is evolving alongside its dual-platform quantum technology roadmap.
• Next, we’ll examine how January’s record bookings and large multi-year contracts may influence D-Wave Quantum’s longer-term investment narrative.

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D-Wave Quantum Investment Narrative Recap

To own D-Wave Quantum, you need to believe that quantum annealing and its emerging gate-model program can turn today’s small revenue base into a durable, higher-margin quantum-compute-as-a-service business. The latest earnings underline that the key near term catalyst is converting record bookings and multi-year contracts into repeat QCaaS usage, while the biggest risk remains persistent, very large net losses that could keep stretching the path to a sustainable business model.

Against that backdrop, January’s record bookings, led by the US$20 million Florida Atlantic University contract and the two-year, US$10 million Fortune 100 QCaaS deal, look especially relevant. They directly address concerns about lumpy, one-off system sales by pointing to larger, multi-year usage agreements that can improve revenue visibility, even as the company’s widening full year net loss highlights how much execution risk still sits between headline bookings and eventual operating leverage.

Yet, even with these promising contracts, investors should be aware that rising R&D and operating costs could still...

Read the full narrative on D-Wave Quantum (it's free!)

D-Wave Quantum's narrative projects $122.5 million revenue and $15.2 million earnings by 2028. This requires 71.8% yearly revenue growth and a $414.0 million earnings increase from -$398.8 million today.

Uncover how D-Wave Quantum's forecasts yield a $38.54 fair value, a 105% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the lowest ranked analysts were already assuming about 61.8 percent annual revenue growth and ongoing losses, so you can see how opinions may diverge further if the latest bookings and contracts either reinforce or challenge their view of slower enterprise scaling.

Explore 84 other fair value estimates on D-Wave Quantum - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Reach Your Own Conclusion

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

• A great starting point for your D-Wave Quantum research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free D-Wave Quantum research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate D-Wave Quantum's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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