Does D-Wave Quantum’s Soaring 1,065.9% Gain Still Match Its Fundamentals in 2025?

• If you are wondering whether D-Wave Quantum is still a speculative story stock or if the current price actually makes sense for long term investors, this article will walk through the numbers behind the hype.
• The stock has been extremely volatile, dropping 11.2% over the last week but still up 4.2% over the past month, 147.5% year to date and 165.5% over the last year, with a 1,065.9% gain over three years.
• Much of this wild ride has been driven by excitement around its annealing based quantum computing systems, new commercial contracts and expanding partnerships that suggest the technology is moving from lab curiosity toward real world deployment. At the same time, ongoing capital needs and questions about how defensible its lead is in a fast moving field mean sentiment can flip quickly when any new competitive or financing headline hits.
• Despite all that, our structured valuation framework gives D-Wave Quantum a value score of 0 out of 6. In the next sections we will unpack what different valuation methods say about the stock today and hint at a more nuanced way to think about value that we will come back to at the end of the article.

D-Wave Quantum scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: D-Wave Quantum Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a business is worth today by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to a present value.

For D-Wave Quantum, the latest twelve month free cash flow is approximately $54.9 Million in the red, highlighting how early stage the business still is. Analysts and extrapolations used in the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model see cash flows remaining negative for several years, before improving to $119.6 Million by 2029 and then rising further through 2035. These projections, beyond the initial analyst horizon, are extended by Simply Wall St based on estimated growth rates.

When these cash flows are discounted back to today, the model arrives at an intrinsic value of about $21.00 per share. Compared with the current share price, the DCF implies D-Wave Quantum is roughly 13.3% overvalued. This suggests expectations in the market are already running ahead of the modeled cash flow path.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests D-Wave Quantum may be overvalued by 13.3%. Discover 913 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for D-Wave Quantum.

Approach 2: D-Wave Quantum Price vs Book

For companies that are still loss making or only just approaching break even, price to book is often a more practical yardstick than earnings based metrics, because it compares the market value directly with the net assets that have been built up so far.

In general, faster growth, higher profitability and lower risk justify a higher price to book ratio. Slower growth, weaker margins or higher uncertainty point to a lower, more conservative multiple. With D-Wave Quantum, the stock currently trades at about 12.42x book value. That is well above both the broader Software industry average of roughly 3.38x and a peer group average of about 7.35x, suggesting the market is already pricing in a substantial premium for its technology and growth option value.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio is designed to refine that comparison by estimating what a reasonable price to book multiple should be after factoring in the company’s specific earnings growth profile, business and financing risks, profit margins, industry dynamics and market capitalization. This makes it a more tailored benchmark than blunt peer or industry averages. In D-Wave Quantum’s case, the Fair Ratio comes in meaningfully below the current 12.42x, indicating that, even after accounting for its potential, the shares look stretched on a price to book basis.

Result: OVERVALUED

PB ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1462 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your D-Wave Quantum Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple framework that lets you attach a clear story to your numbers by recording your view on a company’s future revenue, earnings and margins, and the fair value that follows from those assumptions.

A Narrative links three things together: the business story you believe, the financial forecast that story implies, and the fair value that drops out of that forecast, so you can see exactly how your expectations translate into an investment decision.

On Simply Wall St’s Community page, used by millions of investors, Narratives are an easy, accessible tool that show you how your own fair value compares with the current share price and how other investors are thinking about the same stock.

Narratives are also dynamic, automatically updating when fresh information like news or earnings is released. Your view of D-Wave Quantum can therefore evolve from, for example, a very optimistic scenario with rapid adoption and high margins to a more cautious case with slower growth and continued losses, each with its own fair value anchor.

Do you think there's more to the story for D-Wave Quantum? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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