Assessing UiPath (PATH) Valuation As Fair Value Models Clash With P/E Signals

Why UiPath Is Back On Investors’ Radar

UiPath (PATH) is drawing fresh attention after a prolonged slide, with the share price around US$10.10 and negative returns over the past month, past 3 months, and year to date putting recent performance in focus.

See our latest analysis for UiPath.

At around US$10.10, UiPath’s short term momentum looks weak, with a 7 day share price return of 7.68% and a 30 day share price return of 31.76%. The 1 year total shareholder return of 20.03% and 3 year total shareholder return of 31.94% point to pressure over a longer horizon as investors reassess growth potential and risk around automation software.

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With UiPath trading around US$10.10 and various valuation metrics suggesting a discount to some estimates of intrinsic value, you have to ask: is this a genuine entry point, or is the market already factoring in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 38% Undervalued

With UiPath last closing at $10.10 against a narrative fair value of $16.19, the current price sits well below what this widely followed model suggests.

UiPath's focus on accelerating innovation across the agentic automation road map is expected to grow deeper customer relationships and strategic partnerships, likely driving future revenue growth. Increased adoption of UiPath's platform among existing customers, supported by strategic changes in the go-to-market structure, is aimed at enhancing customer engagement and boosting ARR growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what is behind that optimism on automation, partnerships and ARR growth? The real story sits in a tight set of revenue, margin and valuation assumptions that link product roll out, deal size and earnings power in a precise way.

This fair value view is built using an 8.42% discount rate and incorporates specific expectations for automation uptake, cloud ARR and future profit margins. It also reflects how analysts weigh UiPath's index additions, buybacks and acquisition appetite against softer revenue forecasts and margin questions. Those ingredients together are what drive the $16.19 figure, not just a simple multiple on today's earnings.

Result: Fair Value of $16.19 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, there are still meaningful watchpoints, including revenue growth headwinds from the SaaS transition and deal delays tied to geopolitics and tighter customer budgets.

Find out about the key risks to this UiPath narrative.

Another Check: Earnings Multiple Sends A Different Signal

Here is the tension. The narrative and our model point to UiPath trading 45% below fair value, yet the current P/E of 23.5x sits well above a fair ratio of 12.6x. It screens cheaper than US software peers at 29.6x and the broader industry at 24.3x, but that gap to the fair ratio hints at real valuation risk if sentiment cools. Which signal do you trust more?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

If this mix of signals on UiPath leaves you undecided, it is worth looking through the numbers yourself and forming a clear view. To weigh the balance of concerns and potential upsides in context, take a close look at the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

Ready To Find Your Next Idea?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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