Fair Isaac Corporation Just Beat EPS By 14%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE:FICO) just released its third-quarter report and things are looking bullish. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 4.1% to hit US$536m. Fair Isaac reported statutory earnings per share (EPS) US$7.40, which was a notable 14% above what the analysts had forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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After the latest results, the 18 analysts covering Fair Isaac are now predicting revenues of US$2.28b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a decent 18% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 21% to US$31.89. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.29b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$31.81 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Fair Isaac

The consensus price target fell 7.5% to US$1,936, suggesting that the analysts might have been a bit enthusiastic in their previous valuation - or they were expecting the company to provide stronger guidance in the quarterly results. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Fair Isaac analyst has a price target of US$2,300 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$1,364. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Fair Isaac shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Fair Isaac's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 14% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 8.1% per annum over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Fair Isaac is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Fair Isaac's future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Fair Isaac. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Fair Isaac analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Fair Isaac that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.