Circle (CRCL): Reassessing Valuation After a 16% One-Month Rebound and Recent Stablecoin Sentiment Shift

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) has quietly outperformed over the past month, climbing about 16% even as its past 3 months remain sharply negative. This setup has traders reassessing its long term stablecoin story.

See our latest analysis for Circle Internet Group.

The recent rebound, including a roughly 16% 30 day share price return after a weak 90 day patch, suggests sentiment toward Circle’s stablecoin strategy is stabilizing even as the year to date share price performance still looks muted.

If Circle’s move has you watching crypto infrastructure more closely, it is worth exploring high growth tech and AI stocks for other high potential names shaping the next phase of digital finance.

With Circle’s shares still down over the past quarter despite strong revenue and income growth, is the market underestimating its stablecoin upside or already baking in the bulk of its long term expansion story?

Most Popular Narrative: 33.7% Undervalued

With Circle last closing at $80.99 versus a narrative fair value of $122.10, the gap reflects a bold long term income and growth blueprint.

At the time of writing, Circle (CRCL) trades at $241 per share. Based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model with the following assumptions:

• Revenue growth of 20% per year for the next five years

• Net margins reaching 18% by year five

• A 10% discount rate, I estimate a fair value of $326 per share.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how sustained double digit growth, expanding margins, and a premium future multiple combine into that fair value gap? The full narrative lays it bare.

Result: Fair Value of $122.1 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, sustained rate cuts and Tether’s lighter regulatory regime could rapidly erode Circle’s yield-driven model, forcing investors to rethink the bullish narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Circle Internet Group narrative.

Another Take on Value

That narrative fair value paints Circle as clearly undervalued, but our SWS DCF model is more cautious. It points to a fair value of $111.99 versus today’s $80.99. It still suggests upside, just with a narrower margin. Which set of assumptions feels more realistic to you?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Build Your Own Circle Internet Group Narrative

If you see the outlook differently or simply want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a complete narrative in minutes using Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Circle Internet Group research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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