Is BigBear.ai (BBAI) Using Sensor‑Level AI Partnerships To Redefine Its Defense Moat?

• In December 2025, BigBear.ai announced a partnership with C Speed to integrate its ConductorOS AI orchestration platform into C Speed’s LightWave Radar systems, aiming to enhance real-time, autonomous threat detection and decision support for defense and homeland security missions across air, missile, and counter‑UAS domains.
• This collaboration links BigBear.ai’s expanding Abu Dhabi presence with C Speed’s deployed U.S. and international radar footprint, potentially broadening the role of AI at the sensor level across multiple security and border protection missions.
• Now we’ll examine how integrating ConductorOS directly into LightWave Radar could influence BigBear.ai’s investment narrative around defense-focused AI orchestration.

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BigBear.ai Holdings Investment Narrative Recap

To own BigBear.ai, you need to believe that its AI orchestration platforms can become embedded in critical defense and security workflows despite lumpy revenue, cash burn, and dilution risk. The C Speed partnership reinforces the near term catalyst of turning ConductorOS into deployed, multi year programs, but does not remove the pressure from negative free cash flow and the possibility of further share issuance.

The Abu Dhabi office opening in December 2025 ties directly into this radar partnership by giving BigBear.ai a physical base near key security customers and partners. For investors, that expansion supports the catalyst of turning regional pilots and memoranda of understanding into enduring contracts that could smooth contract timing and reduce some of the lumpiness in reported revenue.

Yet while these growth efforts are encouraging, investors should be aware of how ongoing dilution and negative earnings could affect existing shareholders...

Read the full narrative on BigBear.ai Holdings (it's free!)

BigBear.ai Holdings' narrative projects $162.2 million revenue and $10.3 million earnings by 2028. This requires 2.1% yearly revenue growth and about a $454 million earnings increase from -$443.9 million today.

Uncover how BigBear.ai Holdings' forecasts yield a $6.67 fair value, a 19% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Thirty three fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range widely from US$0.68 to US$15.26 per share, showing how far opinions can differ. Against that backdrop, BigBear.ai’s dependence on converting pilots and partnerships such as C Speed into stable, multi year defense programs may prove crucial, so it is worth comparing several of these viewpoints before forming your own view.

Explore 33 other fair value estimates on BigBear.ai Holdings - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own BigBear.ai Holdings Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your BigBear.ai Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free BigBear.ai Holdings research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate BigBear.ai Holdings' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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