BigBear.ai (BBAI): Valuation Check After C Speed Defense Partnership and Middle East Expansion Push

BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI) is back on traders radar after unveiling a new partnership with C Speed that plugs its ConductorOS AI engine into C Speed radar systems for real time defense threat detection.

See our latest analysis for BigBear.ai Holdings.

That C Speed deal lands after a choppy stretch where dilution worries and the Ask Sage acquisition weighed on sentiment, yet BigBear.ai still sports a punchy year to date share price return and a triple digit one year total shareholder return. This hints that long term momentum remains intact even if near term volatility stays elevated.

If defense focused AI is on your radar after this news, it could be a good moment to explore other aerospace and defense stocks that are attracting attention for similar reasons.

Yet with the stock already up more than 100 percent over the past year and trading at only a small discount to Wall Street targets, investors have to ask: Is there still upside left, or is the market already pricing in BigBear.ai’s next growth leg?

Most Popular Narrative: 6.1% Undervalued

With BigBear.ai last closing at 6.26 dollars against a narrative fair value of 6.67 dollars, the story leans toward modest upside driven by long term expansion and AI rollouts.

The analysts have a consensus price target of 5.833 for BigBear.ai Holdings based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of 8.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just 3.5.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what justifies stretching profitability from deep losses to healthy margins, while still assigning a towering future earnings multiple? The narrative breaks down the revenue runway, margin rebuild and share count assumptions that hold this valuation together, step by step.

Result: Fair Value of $6.67 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent contract delays and lumpy government revenue could quickly undermine the optimistic airport rollout and international expansion story that underpins today’s valuation.

Find out about the key risks to this BigBear.ai Holdings narrative.

Another View: Rich on Sales, Despite Narrative Upside

That modest 6.1 percent discount to narrative fair value clashes with how the market prices BigBear.ai on revenue. At about 19 times sales versus a US IT industry average of 2.1 times and a fair ratio of 2.4 times, the stock looks heavily loaded with expectation.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own BigBear.ai Holdings Narrative

If this perspective does not fully align with your own, you can dive into the numbers yourself, shape a personalized view, and Do it your way in under three minutes.

A great starting point for your BigBear.ai Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Ready for more investment ideas?

Before you move on, explore fresh opportunities by using the Simply Wall Street Screener to uncover stocks that match your strategy and help you stay ahead.

• Consider potential mispricings by targeting these 913 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that could rerate as the market adjusts.
• Explore the next wave of innovation by focusing on these 24 AI penny stocks contributing to advances in automation, analytics and intelligent infrastructure.
• Strengthen your income stream by concentrating on these 13 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that may help support long term, compounding returns.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com