Assessing ZenaTech (ZENA) Valuation As Phoenix Aero Drone Defense Expansion Gains Traction

ZenaTech (ZENA) is drawing fresh attention after announcing Phoenix Aero LLC, a Ukrainian subsidiary intended as a manufacturing and export base for counter-UAS and interceptor drones serving defense customers across Gulf Cooperation Council markets.

See our latest analysis for ZenaTech.

Despite the Phoenix Aero announcement and a recent follow on equity offering, ZenaTech’s share price return has come under pressure. The stock is down 28.3% over the past month and 51.4% year to date, while the 1 year total shareholder return is down 39.0%. This suggests sentiment has weakened even as the drone and software story gains visibility.

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With ZenaTech’s share price under pressure, a recent equity raise, and management talking up Phoenix Aero’s potential, the big question is whether today’s valuation underestimates the drone and software pipeline or whether the market already prices in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 78% Undervalued

According to the most followed narrative, ZenaTech’s fair value of $6.85 sits well above the last close at $1.52. This puts the focus squarely on how its AI drone and software shift could support that gap over time.

The biggest catalyst in the ZenaTech story is that Drone as a Service has moved from concept to actual revenue driver. In the third quarter of 2025, the company reported C$3.57 million of drone-services revenue versus C$776,908 from enterprise SaaS.

Over the first nine months of 2025, drone services accounted for about 72% of total revenue. That is a dramatic shift in business mix for a company that, just a year earlier, was still primarily a software story.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what has to happen for that fair value to stack up? The narrative leans on aggressive revenue expansion, better margins from drones and a future profile closer to a scaled tech platform.

Result: Fair Value of $6.85 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this narrative can crack if acquisitions fail to integrate into a higher margin platform or if continued capital raises and dilution drag on shareholder value.

Find out about the key risks to this ZenaTech narrative.

Another View: Market Pricing Sends A Different Signal

The user narrative leans heavily on long term revenue growth to justify a fair value of $6.85, but the current P/S of 9.1x tells a more cautious story. ZenaTech trades richer than both US software peers at 5.1x and the broader US software industry at 3.6x, even though it is still loss making and volatile.

At the same time, that 9.1x sits well below an estimated fair ratio of 37.1x. This implies the market is only partially buying into the high growth thesis. For investors, that gap cuts both ways. It hints at upside if execution goes right, but also highlights how quickly sentiment could reset if growth or dilution disappoints.

To see how those numbers line up in practice and what they could mean for valuation risk over time, take a closer look at the valuation breakdown through the See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown..

Next Steps

With sentiment clearly divided, this is the point to move quickly, review the numbers yourself and decide where you stand on ZenaTech’s story by weighing its 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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