Tenable (TENB): Evaluating Valuation After Q3 Outperformance and Raised Guidance

Tenable Holdings delivered quarterly results that landed ahead of expectations, showcasing solid revenue growth and improved earnings as its Tenable One platform continued to gain traction with new customers.

See our latest analysis for Tenable Holdings.

This wave of strong results and upbeat guidance has yet to reverse Tenable’s downward trend. Over the past year, the total shareholder return fell 25.2%. The share price recently closed at $29.02, reflecting limited momentum despite a completed buyback and ongoing customer wins. However, the improving outlook could help shift sentiment if sustained.

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With Tenable’s valuation now sitting well below analyst price targets despite strengthening fundamentals, investors are left wondering if this recent weakness is an opportunity to buy or if future gains are already reflected in the share price.

Most Popular Narrative: 25% Undervalued

The most widely followed narrative sees Tenable trading well below its fair value estimate. Discounted cash flows and future profits paint a brighter picture than the current $29.02 share price suggests. This valuation depends on strong assumptions about market trends and the company’s evolving business model.

The accelerating shift towards digital transformation and cloud adoption is expanding organizations' attack surfaces, driving sustained demand for Tenable's unified exposure management platform. This is expected to grow the total addressable market and provide strong long-term revenue tailwinds. Heightened regulatory scrutiny, such as evolving data privacy and cybersecurity compliance standards, is forcing enterprises, including smaller organizations, to prioritize vulnerability management and unified risk platforms. This supports higher renewal rates, longer contract durations, and increased recurring revenue visibility.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious about the optimistic numbers hiding under the hood? The narrative calculates future value using bold projections on recurring revenue, margins, and a profit turnaround. Discover what powers this bullish outlook and which financial leaps shape that eye-catching fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $38.79 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, challenges remain. Heavy reliance on public sector deals and rising competition could still derail the bullish outlook for Tenable.

Find out about the key risks to this Tenable Holdings narrative.

Build Your Own Tenable Holdings Narrative

If this perspective does not fit your outlook or you would rather rely on your own research, crafting your own take takes just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Tenable Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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