Here's Why We Think ShotSpotter's (NASDAQ:SSTI) Statutory Earnings Might Be Conservative

Statistically speaking, it is less risky to invest in profitable companies than in unprofitable ones. Having said that, sometimes statutory profit levels are not a good guide to ongoing profitability, because some short term one-off factor has impacted profit levels. This article will consider whether ShotSpotter's (NASDAQ:SSTI) statutory profits are a good guide to its underlying earnings.

We like the fact that ShotSpotter made a profit of US$2.77m on its revenue of US$44.0m, in the last year. The good news is that the company managed to grow its revenue over the last three years, and also move from loss-making to profitable.

View our latest analysis for ShotSpotter

Not all profits are equal, and we can learn more about the nature of a company's past profitability by diving deeper into the financial statements. Today, we'll discuss ShotSpotter's free cashflow relative to its earnings, and consider what that tells us about the company. That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Zooming In On ShotSpotter's Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

For the year to September 2020, ShotSpotter had an accrual ratio of -2.06. That implies it has very good cash conversion, and that its earnings in the last year actually significantly understate its free cash flow. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of US$7.0m, well over the US$2.77m it reported in profit. ShotSpotter's free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see.

Our Take On ShotSpotter's Profit Performance

As we discussed above, ShotSpotter's accrual ratio indicates strong conversion of profit to free cash flow, which is a positive for the company. Based on this observation, we consider it possible that ShotSpotter's statutory profit actually understates its earnings potential! And on top of that, its earnings per share have grown at an extremely impressive rate over the last year. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. If you'd like to know more about ShotSpotter as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs that you should run your eye over to get a better picture of ShotSpotter.

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of ShotSpotter's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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