Is Shopify’s 2025 Valuation Justified After 300% Gains and Platform Expansion Strategy?

• Wondering if Shopify is still a buy after its huge run, or if the easy money has already been made? Here is a look at what the current price really implies, and where the value case stands today.
• The stock has cooled off in the last week and month, down around 1.6% over 7 days and 9.3% over 30 days, but it is still up 45.8% year to date and 38.3% over the past year, with a 307.5% gain over 3 years.
• Recent headlines have focused on Shopify sharpening its core e commerce platform, doubling down on payments and logistics partnerships, and expanding tools for merchants to sell across social channels and international markets. Together, these moves have reinforced the long term growth story, even as short term sentiment swings with broader tech and interest rate narratives.
• Despite that backdrop, Shopify currently scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks, which suggests the market may already be pricing in a lot of optimism. Next, we will look at what different valuation approaches say about that price tag, and then explore a more complete way to think about Shopify's worth beyond the usual models.

Shopify scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Shopify Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a business is worth by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today in dollar terms. For Shopify, the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model starts from roughly $1.9 billion in last twelve month free cash flow and assumes strong growth as the company scales its platform.

Analyst forecasts and Simply Wall St extrapolations see free cash flow climbing to about $5.6 billion by 2029, and continuing to grow towards roughly $10.0 billion by 2035. These cash flows are then discounted back to present value using an appropriate required return to reflect risk and the time value of money.

On this basis, the DCF model produces an intrinsic value of about $98.66 per share. Compared with the current share price, this implies the stock is around 59.0% overvalued. This indicates that a lot of future growth is already priced in, which may leave less room for error if execution or macro conditions do not meet expectations.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Shopify may be overvalued by 59.0%. Discover 925 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Shopify.

Approach 2: Shopify Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies like Shopify, the price to earnings ratio is a useful yardstick because it directly links what investors are paying to the profits the business is already generating. A higher PE can be justified for businesses with stronger growth prospects and lower perceived risk, while slower or more uncertain growth usually warrants a lower, more conservative multiple.

Shopify currently trades on a PE of about 114.6x, which is far richer than both the broader IT industry average of around 28.6x and the peer group average of roughly 40.1x. To move beyond these blunt comparisons, Simply Wall St uses a proprietary Fair Ratio model, which estimates what PE multiple would make sense for Shopify once factors such as earnings growth, profitability, risk profile, industry, and market cap are all taken into account.

On this basis, Shopify’s Fair Ratio comes out at about 49.1x, which is still a premium to the market and industry, but well below the current 114.6x. This gap suggests the market is paying substantially more than the growth and risk profile would normally justify.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Shopify Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives. This is a simple framework on Simply Wall St's Community page that lets you write the story behind your numbers by linking your view of Shopify’s business (its products, competitive edge, AI strategy, and risks) to a concrete forecast for revenue, earnings, and margins. That forecast then rolls into a Fair Value you can compare to the current share price to decide whether to buy, hold, or sell. That Fair Value automatically updates as new earnings, news, and estimates come in. For example, one investor might build a bullish Shopify Narrative that leans into rapid AI driven commerce adoption and international expansion and arrives at a Fair Value closer to the upper end of analyst targets near $200. Another more cautious investor might focus on competition, margin pressure, and regulatory risk and land nearer the low end around $114. Both perspectives are expressed not just as opinions, but as transparent, testable numbers tied to the same underlying story.

Do you think there's more to the story for Shopify? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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