Can Riot’s Surging Stock Hold Up After White House Crypto 401k Order in 2025?

Wondering if it’s worth jumping into Riot Platforms or holding off for clearer skies? You’re in good company. With its stock price moving up over 54% in the last 90 days and more than doubling over the past year, Riot is not just along for the crypto ride; it has been leading the charge through headline-making volatility and regulatory curveballs. Recent White House actions hinting at new crypto investment opportunities in retirement portfolios have boosted optimism but also added controversy, increasing both the hype and the potential risks.

That momentum is paired with annual revenue growth approaching 19%. Though net income is still negative, investors seem to like the growth story. With a recent closing price of $13.22, there remains a sizable 31% gap to analysts’ average price target of $17.40. The company trades at a significant intrinsic discount of over 95%. However, don't take that number at face value; when you break down the numbers, Riot only meets two out of six key undervaluation criteria, giving it a valuation score of 2 out of 6. This suggests that there is more at play than just deep discounts or high levels of optimism.

How should we think about Riot’s current valuation? In the next sections, I’ll go over the major valuation methods to show you exactly where Riot stands. And at the end, I’ll share a practical approach for evaluating whether Riot deserves a place in your portfolio.

Riot Platforms delivered 55.5% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Software industry.

Approach 1: Riot Platforms Cash Flows

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company’s intrinsic value by projecting future cash flows and discounting them back to today’s value. This method aims to show what the business could be worth based on its ability to generate free cash over time.

Riot Platforms reported a negative last twelve months Free Cash Flow (FCF) of about $1.2 billion. However, forecasts see a major shift, with expected FCF climbing to $1.2 billion by 2026 and rising steadily to more than $9.2 billion by 2035. These projections reflect extremely strong anticipated growth in the company’s operations and suggest that optimism surrounds Riot’s future prospects.

Based on these numbers, the DCF model assigns Riot an estimated intrinsic value of $272.29 per share. With shares recently trading at $13.22, this results in a 95.1% difference between the current share price and the DCF estimate. This significant gap may indicate that the market is underpricing Riot’s future potential.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our DCF analysis suggests Riot Platforms is undervalued by 95.1%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover more undervalued stocks based on DCF analysis.

Approach 2: Riot Platforms Price vs Sales

The Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio is often used to value growth-focused companies that are not yet consistently profitable, such as Riot Platforms. Because it compares a company’s valuation directly to its revenue, the P/S ratio provides a clearer picture for investors who want to gauge how much they are paying for each dollar of sales, especially when profits are still in the early stages or fluctuate with market cycles.

Riot’s current P/S ratio stands at 9.02x, which is noticeably higher than both the software industry average of 5.23x and the peer group average of 6.50x. At first glance, this suggests investors are willing to pay a premium for Riot’s sales, likely reflecting the company’s rapid growth expectations and strong positioning within the crypto market. However, greater risk and revenue volatility often warrant a lower multiple. This can make the premium a potential concern for investors considering the trade-off between risk and reward.

To help provide more context, the Fair Ratio developed by Simply Wall St incorporates multiple factors, including Riot’s growth outlook, industry norms, profit margins, and risk profile. For Riot, the Fair Ratio currently sits at 4.59x. Compared to the actual P/S ratio of 9.02x, the stock appears to be trading well above what these fundamentals would suggest. This indicates that investors are paying a significant premium relative to its risk and outlook.

Result: OVERVALUED

PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose Your Riot Platforms Narrative

Narratives are simple, story-driven explanations that shape how you see a company's future, allowing you to connect your perspective on aspects such as revenue, margins, and fair value to your investing decisions.

Unlike focusing solely on numbers, narratives help you link Riot Platforms’ business story, such as its ambitious data center expansion or exposure to Bitcoin prices, directly to a set of financial forecasts and a target fair value. This approach can make the company's future potential easier to visualize.

With the Simply Wall St platform and its community of millions of investors, narratives become a powerful and accessible tool. You can quickly build or compare multiple viewpoints and update your forecast when news or earnings emerge.

By comparing your narrative’s fair value to the current share price, you can assess whether the opportunity to buy, hold, or sell aligns with your specific expectations.

For example, some investors may believe Riot’s strategic expansion justifies a high price target of $24.00 per share, while others concerned about Bitcoin volatility might assign it a value as low as $11.00. This demonstrates how narratives help you confidently act on your own outlook rather than simply following the crowd.

Do you think there's more to the story for Riot Platforms? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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