Key Insights
- Radware's estimated fair value is US$18.36 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- With US$21.96 share price, Radware appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
- Our fair value estimate is 14% lower than Radware's analyst price target of US$21.43
How far off is Radware Ltd. (NASDAQ:RDWR) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
View our latest analysis for Radware
What's The Estimated Valuation?
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
| Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$35.0m | US$42.2m | US$42.9m | US$43.7m | US$44.6m | US$45.6m | US$46.7m | US$47.8m | US$48.9m | US$50.1m |
| Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 1.68% | Est @ 1.92% | Est @ 2.10% | Est @ 2.22% | Est @ 2.30% | Est @ 2.36% | Est @ 2.40% | Est @ 2.43% |
| Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.7% | US$32.5 | US$36.4 | US$34.4 | US$32.5 | US$30.8 | US$29.3 | US$27.8 | US$26.4 | US$25.1 | US$23.9 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$299m
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.5%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.7%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$50m× (1 + 2.5%) ÷ (7.7%– 2.5%) = US$990m
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$990m÷ ( 1 + 7.7%)10= US$472m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$771m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$22.0, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
Important Assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Radware as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.008. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Radware
- Currently debt free.
- Expensive based on P/S ratio and estimated fair value.
- Forecast to reduce losses next year.
- Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows.
- No apparent threats visible for RDWR.
Looking Ahead:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Radware, we've put together three fundamental aspects you should assess:
- Financial Health: Does RDWR have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does RDWR's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGS every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NasdaqGS:RDWR
Radware
Develops, manufactures, and markets cyber security and application delivery solutions for cloud, on-premises, and software defined data centers worldwide.
Flawless balance sheet with moderate growth potential.
