Qualys (QLYS) Valuation Check: Is the Recent Downtrend Creating an Opportunity?

Shares of Qualys (QLYS) have slipped slightly over the past week, continuing a subtle downtrend that began about a month ago. Investors are beginning to weigh recent performance in relation to the company’s longer-term trajectory and fundamentals.

See our latest analysis for Qualys.

Zooming out, Qualys’ share price has faced steady selling pressure in recent months as investor enthusiasm has tempered following a strong multi-year run. Despite a year-to-date share price return of -8.87%, the five-year total shareholder return stands at a robust 29.6%. This suggests that momentum appears to be fading after a period of solid growth.

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With shares now trading nearly 25% below their estimated intrinsic value and analysts setting higher price targets, the question remains: is Qualys now undervalued, or is the market already factoring in all future growth potential?

Most Popular Narrative: 10.2% Undervalued

Qualys’ latest closing price of $126.60 sits notably below the most popular narrative fair value of $141.02, pointing to a potential disconnect between market sentiment and future growth expectations. While current investor caution dominates, this narrative highlights specific catalysts that could reshape valuation debates ahead.

Adoption of Qualys' new cloud-native risk operations center (ROC) and Agentic AI platform positions the company as a leading pre-breach risk management provider. This offers unified orchestration, automation, and remediation across both Qualys and non-Qualys data, opening incremental greenfield opportunities and supporting higher ARPU and expanded TAM. These factors could lead to durable revenue and earnings growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious why this narrative goes against recent market jitters? There is a bold set of revenue and earnings growth assumptions driving the valuation, but also an underlying bet that innovative tech and expansion efforts will pay off. Want to unmask the quantitative drivers that back this call? The full story reveals the calculations behind this fair value. Get the details before everyone else does.

Result: Fair Value of $141.02 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, rapid advancements in AI security and increasing customer preference for vendor consolidation could present challenges to Qualys’ growth assumptions and reduce its valuation outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Qualys narrative.

Build Your Own Qualys Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dig into the numbers on your own terms, try building your own narrative using our simple tool in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Qualys research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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