Qualys, Inc. Just Recorded A 16% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Shareholders might have noticed that Qualys, Inc. (NASDAQ:QLYS) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.8% to US$150 in the past week. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$146m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Qualys surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$1.05 per share, a notable 16% above expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Qualys

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Qualys from 20 analysts is for revenues of US$605.9m in 2024. If met, it would imply a credible 6.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to drop 18% to US$3.62 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$607.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.56 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$165. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Qualys, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$220 and the most bearish at US$114 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Qualys' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 8.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 14% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Qualys.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$165, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Qualys. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Qualys analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of Qualys' Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.