Progress Software's (NASDAQ:PRGS) Earnings Seem To Be Promising

Investors signalled that they were pleased with Progress Software Corporation's (NASDAQ:PRGS) most recent earnings report. This reaction by the market reaction is understandable when looking at headline profits and we have found some further encouraging factors.

Check out our latest analysis for Progress Software

A Closer Look At Progress Software's Earnings

Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

For the year to August 2024, Progress Software had an accrual ratio of -0.13. That indicates that its free cash flow was a fair bit more than its statutory profit. In fact, it had free cash flow of US$220m in the last year, which was a lot more than its statutory profit of US$82.6m. Progress Software's free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see. However, that's not all there is to consider. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

Progress Software's profit was reduced by unusual items worth US$15m in the last twelve months, and this helped it produce high cash conversion, as reflected by its unusual items. This is what you'd expect to see where a company has a non-cash charge reducing paper profits. It's never great to see unusual items costing the company profits, but on the upside, things might improve sooner rather than later. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. Assuming those unusual expenses don't come up again, we'd therefore expect Progress Software to produce a higher profit next year, all else being equal.

Our Take On Progress Software's Profit Performance

In conclusion, both Progress Software's accrual ratio and its unusual items suggest that its statutory earnings are probably reasonably conservative. Based on these factors, we think Progress Software's earnings potential is at least as good as it seems, and maybe even better! Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Progress Software you should be aware of.

Our examination of Progress Software has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And it has passed with flying colours. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.