Is Pagaya’s New Achieve AI-Underwriting Deal Reshaping The Investment Case For Pagaya Technologies (PGY)?

• In December 2025, Achieve announced a partnership with Pagaya Technologies to integrate Pagaya’s AI-powered underwriting and data network into Achieve’s personal loan platform, while Pagaya also closed PAID 2025-8, a US$500 million asset-backed securitization backed by consumer loans from its network.
• The Achieve collaboration adds another fintech to Pagaya’s partner roster and highlights growing adoption of its AI underwriting as a core infrastructure layer.
• We’ll now look at how this new Achieve integration of Pagaya’s AI underwriting could influence the company’s broader investment narrative.

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Pagaya Technologies Investment Narrative Recap

To own Pagaya, you need to believe its AI underwriting can become a widely adopted infrastructure layer for consumer credit, while it manages regulatory, funding, and credit performance risks. The Achieve partnership modestly supports the near term catalyst of deeper penetration with consumer lenders, but does not fundamentally change the key risk that any deterioration in model performance or tighter regulation could slow partner growth and pressure margins.

The December 2025 closing of the US$500 million PAID 2025-8 asset backed securitization looks most relevant here, because consistent ABS access helps support Pagaya’s funding stability as it onboards new partners like Achieve. Together, the Achieve integration and ongoing securitization activity feed into the same catalyst: building a larger, more resilient network of lenders and investors around Pagaya’s AI driven credit platform.

Yet while the growth story can look appealing, investors should also be aware of rising regulatory and model performance risks that could...

Read the full narrative on Pagaya Technologies (it's free!)

Pagaya Technologies' narrative projects $1.8 billion revenue and $311.7 million earnings by 2028. This requires 17.0% yearly revenue growth and roughly a $594 million earnings increase from $-282.4 million today.

Uncover how Pagaya Technologies' forecasts yield a $40.50 fair value, a 77% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Seven members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see Pagaya’s fair value between US$34.05 and US$318.32, showing very different expectations for the stock. You may want to weigh those views against the risk that any stumble in Pagaya’s AI underwriting performance could affect partner confidence and, in turn, the company’s ability to sustain its current business momentum.

Explore 7 other fair value estimates on Pagaya Technologies - why the stock might be a potential multi-bagger!

Build Your Own Pagaya Technologies Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Pagaya Technologies research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Pagaya Technologies research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Pagaya Technologies' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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