Okta, Inc.

NasdaqGS:OKTA Stock Report

Market Cap: US$13.7b

Okta Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Okta is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 18.3% and 8.2% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 18.1% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 10.4% in 3 years.

Key information

18.3%

Earnings growth rate

18.08%

EPS growth rate

IT earnings growth16.7%
Revenue growth rate8.2%
Future return on equity10.38%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated02 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • May 07

Okta: An Oversold Victim Of The 'SaaSapocalypse' Focused On Agentic AI

Summary Okta, Inc. appears significantly oversold despite its unique positioning as the independent identity and access management layer for the emerging era of autonomous AI agents. Management reports that Okta contracts including new agentic solutions drive a 40 percent uplift in value as organizations prioritize securing non-human identities. Okta maintains a strategic advantage through vendor neutrality allowing it to secure complex workflows across diverse cloud ecosystems without platform lock-in. Growth in remaining performance obligations suggests robust demand for Okta despite conservative guidance and analyst skepticism regarding the recent partner ecosystem pivot. While stock-based compensation remains elevated the current valuation for Okta provides a compelling entry point for investors anticipating a renaissance in the software sector. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 21

OKTA: AI Agent Identity Leadership And Q4 Execution Will Drive Repricing

The analyst price target for Okta has been adjusted slightly lower to reflect a new fair value of about $100.28 per share, as analysts balance modestly higher discount rate assumptions with supportive research that highlights solid Q4 execution, improving go-to-market progress, and growing interest in Okta's role in securing AI agents. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Okta offers a mix of optimism and caution, with many firms adjusting price targets while reaffirming their broader views on the company.
Narrative Update • Apr 07

OKTA: AI Agent Identity Demand And 90 Day Catalyst Watch Will Drive Repricing

Narrative Update On Okta The analyst price target has been reset from about $112.55 to roughly $100.93, as analysts factor in mixed target revisions across the Street alongside expectations for steadier revenue growth, slightly higher margins, and a lower future P/E multiple following Okta's recent Q4 results and its AI identity positioning. Analyst Commentary Street research on Okta clusters around two themes: how fast growth can improve from here, and what investors should pay for that growth as market multiples reset.
Narrative Update • Mar 24

OKTA: Identity Securing AI Agents Will Drive Future Upside

Okta's analyst price target edges slightly lower to $133.38 from $133.87, as analysts weigh stronger identity and AI agent tailwinds and improving go to market execution against lower sector multiples and more tempered valuation assumptions. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are highlighting a mix of execution, product traction, and identity led AI themes as key supports for their positive stance on Okta, even as several firms trim targets to reflect lower sector multiples.
Narrative Update • Mar 09

OKTA: Identity For AI Agents And Strong Q4 Execution Will Drive Upside

The analyst fair value estimate for Okta has moved from $145.00 to about $133.87, reflecting a mix of slightly softer modeled revenue growth, a higher discount rate, and lower assumed future P/E multiples, even as analysts highlight solid Q4 execution, growing traction in AI agent use cases, and ongoing confidence in identity as a core part of AI adoption. Analyst Commentary Street research around Okta after the Q4 print has been broadly constructive, even with several target cuts, as many firms point to solid execution, improving sales productivity, and growing demand tied to AI agents and newer products such as Governance.
Narrative Update • Feb 23

OKTA: Cybersecurity Demand And 90 Day Catalyst Watch Will Drive Repricing

Analysts have slightly reduced their Okta fair value estimate by about $1 to $112.55, as lower sector valuation multiples and AI related sentiment have led to lower price targets, even though checks on Okta's business and profitability assumptions remain generally intact. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Okta reflects a mix of optimism about the company’s execution and caution around sector wide repricing and AI related sentiment.
Narrative Update • Feb 08

OKTA: Cybersecurity Demand And 90 Day Bookings Catalyst Will Drive Upside

Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Okta from $142 to $145, citing expectations for durable cybersecurity growth, a potential 90 day bookings catalyst, and scenario analysis around remaining performance obligation trends that affects revenue and P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Okta highlights a mix of optimism and caution, with several bullish analysts pointing to potential upside tied to cybersecurity demand, bookings performance, and remaining performance obligation trends that flow through to revenue and P/E assumptions.
Narrative Update • Jan 25

OKTA: Cybersecurity Demand And 90 Day Catalyst Watch Will Support Premium Performance

Narrative Update on Okta Our analyst price target for Okta edges higher by about US$1, supported by slightly lower discount rate assumptions and steady growth and profitability expectations that align with recent research pointing to durable cybersecurity demand and potential near term bookings strength. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Okta reflects a mix of optimism about growth and execution along with caution around near term expectations and valuation sensitivity ahead of key earnings events.
Narrative Update • Jan 11

OKTA: Future Identity Demand And RPO Resilience Will Support Premium Performance

Our analyst price target for Okta has been adjusted slightly higher from US$112.62 to US$113.02, as analysts factor in more measured expectations around remaining performance obligation growth following Barclays' recent reduction of its target to US$95 ahead of the December 2 earnings report. Analyst Commentary Recent adjustments to Okta’s price targets reflect a more cautious stance around growth expectations, especially heading into the December 2 earnings report.
Narrative Update • Dec 25

OKTA: Future Identity Demand And Data Compliance Will Drive Premium Performance

Narrative Update on Okta The analyst price target for Okta has been reduced by $1 to approximately $112.62 as analysts factor in slightly higher discount rates and more conservative assumptions around remaining performance obligation growth ahead of upcoming earnings. Analyst Commentary Recent commentary reflects a more balanced stance on Okta, with modestly reduced expectations for near term growth but a continued focus on execution into the upcoming earnings report.
Narrative Update • Dec 11

OKTA: Future Identity Data Compliance And AI Security Will Drive Performance

Analysts have modestly reduced their price target on Okta, trimming fair value estimates by about $7 to reflect slightly slower projected revenue growth and a lower future earnings multiple, even as profit margin expectations edge higher. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts note that management's guidance still implies solid mid-teens top-line expansion over the medium term, which supports a premium to slower-growing security peers despite the lower price target.
Analysis Article • Dec 10

Solid Earnings Reflect Okta's (NASDAQ:OKTA) Strength As A Business

Okta, Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:OKTA ) strong earnings report was rewarded with a positive stock price move. We have done some...
Narrative Update • Nov 27

OKTA: Future Performance Will Benefit From Growing Identity Data Compliance Demand

Narrative Update on Okta Analysts have slightly reduced Okta's fair value estimate from $120.37 to $118.80, citing moderated expectations for the company's near-term growth and updated revenue forecasts. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts see the potential for upside in Okta’s remaining performance obligations, suggesting that third quarter growth could reach 13 percent year-over-year if demand outperforms baseline assumptions.
Narrative Update • Sep 27

Cloud Migration And AI Security Will Reshape Identity Markets

Despite strong Q2 results and improved guidance driven by robust demand and enterprise traction, mixed analyst sentiment—balancing enhanced profitability with caution around long-term growth and valuation—led to a slight reduction in Okta’s consensus price target from $120.92 to $120.37. Analyst Commentary Strong Q2 results with cRPO growth exceeding guidance and upward revisions to full-year revenue outlook, suggesting robust underlying demand and improved execution.
Analysis Article • Jun 16

Is Okta, Inc. (NASDAQ:OKTA) Trading At A 31% Discount?

Key Insights Okta's estimated fair value is US$142 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Okta is estimated to be...
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New Narrative • May 26

Digital Transformation And AI Will Advance Identity Security

Rising demand for secure, unified identity management fueled by AI, remote work, and growing cybersecurity threats is driving Okta's growth and competitive differentiation.
Analysis Article • May 09

Okta, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:OKTA) 32% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Revenues

Okta, Inc. ( NASDAQ:OKTA ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 32% after a shaky period beforehand...
Seeking Alpha • Apr 16

Okta: Market Doesn't Believe Management, But You Should (Rating Downgrade)

Summary Okta has crushed guidance by large magnitudes over recent quarters. I am concerned that investor sentiment may be overly optimistic, expecting large beats against management guidance despite management warning otherwise. With a PEG ratio over 2 times and peers experiencing downward re-ratings, I do not see Okta delivering market-beating returns and thus downgrade it to neutral. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 31

Okta: Death And Resurrection

Summary Today, I'll provide a unique take on Okta, Inc.'s current business performance and prospects with the help of Palo Alto Networks. In 2017-2018, Palo Alto Networks was seen in a similar light to the way investors have come to view Okta. However, after evolving its platform and accelerating growth, investors shifted their perspective on Palo Alto Networks. I argue that Okta has taken and continues to take the necessary steps to reenter the good graces of investors and the market. And, through this process, it could experience a Palo Alto Networks-like resurrection in the years ahead. In short, I like Okta at $104/share. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 12

Okta: A Cash-Rich SaaS Stock With Underrated Growth Potential

Summary I love that Okta holds over $2.1 billion in cash—giving it flexibility and stability. At 18x forward free cash flow, Okta’s valuation looks compelling for a SaaS leader. I see room for revenue growth to reaccelerate beyond management’s conservative guidance. Okta’s improving margins could drive nearly $1 billion in free cash flow, making this a strong setup. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 04

Okta Q4: Enterprise Business Is Booming, Even Management Is Surprised

Summary Okta's Q4 FY25 earnings saw its revenue and earnings grow 13% and 30% earnings YoY respectively, surpassing analyst estimates and driving the stock up 16%. During the quarter, Okta saw its cRPO grow at an even higher pace compared to Q3, driven by the accelerating momentum in its $100K+ and $1M+ ACV customers. For FY26, the management remains committed to investing in ongoing product innovation, where its portfolio of new products has seen growing adoption along with the help from a targeted GTM strategy. Although NRR declined for the 3rd consecutive quarter, while FY26 revenue estimates came lower than my expectations, I believe directionally, OKTA is on the right track, reiterating my “buy” rating. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 31

Okta: Cybersecurity Leader In IAM Submarket

Summary Okta's market share in cybersecurity increased from 0.3% to 1.2% (2017-2024) due to its strong R&D investment and focus on IAM. Okta's competitive pricing and extensive feature set, second only to Microsoft, enhance its market position and customer adoption. Strategic partnerships and high customer ratings drive Okta's popularity, with a focus on acquiring larger, high-value customers. We rate Okta as a Strong Buy based on its competitive edge and growth prospects in IAM. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
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New Narrative • Jan 20

Good foundation, but now it's all about the next steps

Okta was founded in 2009 by Todd McKinnon (CEO) and Frederic Kerrest with a vision to fundamentally improve the world of identity and access management (IAM). The company has established itself in a h
Seeking Alpha • Jan 15

Okta: Mind The GAAP

Summary Many tech stocks have reached lofty valuations, but Okta has been left out. Investors may be disappointed with management's preliminary guidance for the upcoming year. Investors may be underestimating the company's entry into GAAP profitability. Okta looks like a solid opportunity in a frothy market. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 30

Okta's Breakout Imminent - Wait Out The Near-Term Customer Retention Issues

Summary OKTA has continued to report robust performance metrics across growing multi-year RPO and adj subscription gross margin, with it implying the growing customer demand and its excellent pricing power. If anything, the cybersecurity company has reported an impressive 3Y CAGR of +70.9% in the $1M+ Annual Contract Value customers, from $200M in FQ4'22 to $1B in FQ3'25. Combined with the "hundreds of millions of dollars of pipeline" from the Octane event, we believe that OKTA's sell off has been overly done. Despite the near-term customer retention issues, the new upsell/ cross sell activities are likely to drive new growth opportunities and a potential bottoming soon. With OKTA still painfully discounted compared to historical trends and its peers, we are looking at a rich double digits capital appreciation opportunity ahead. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 16

Okta: You Should Be Thankful It's Still So Cheap

Summary Okta stock has underperformed the market recently as it struggled to replicate its early 2024 momentum. Okta has revised its go-to-market strategies to target enterprise and government customers. While the recent gains are constructive, the market is likely awaiting more developments to validate its approach. Okta faces intense competition against Microsoft, while IT spending headwinds could affect near-term buying sentiments. I argue why investors have already baked in significant pessimism, as its well-battered PEG ratio highlights a solid buying opportunity. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 10

Okta: Growth Outlook Has Gotten Better

Summary I maintain a buy rating for Okta stock due to strong operational metrics, improved growth outlook, and successful partner-led strategy. 3Q25 earnings exceeded expectations with 14% y/y revenue growth and improved EBIT margins, leading to an upward revision of FY25 guidance. New products and partners-led GTM strategy should continue to drive growth. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 04

Okta Earnings: Conservative Guidance Leaves Room For Upside

Summary Okta's fiscal 2026 guidance suggests a shift from high growth, but at 19x forward free cash flow, it remains a compelling buy. Despite past conservative guidance, Okta's fiscal 2026 revenue growth is expected to reach 10% y/y, with analysts likely to raise estimates. Okta's robust financials include $700 million in FY25 free cash flow and a potential 29% margin in FY26, highlighting strong profitability. Investment risks include potential customer demand slowdowns and conservative guidance, but OKTA's consistent outperformance and solid balance sheet mitigate these concerns. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Nov 07

Okta: The Underdog's Advantage

Summary Okta's stock is approximately 31% undervalued, with strong revenue growth, positive cash flows, and a consistent share count. Okta excels in secure user authentication and identity management, competing effectively against Microsoft with superior reliability, ease of use, and integration capabilities. Despite negative EBITDA, Okta's aggressive R&D investment and declining SG&A ratio indicate the potential for improved profitability and sustained revenue growth. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NasdaqGS:OKTA - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
1/31/20293,8234531,1121,17213
1/31/20283,4833439981,03041
1/31/20273,18426087490343
1/31/20262,919235863884N/A
10/31/20252,840195895912N/A
7/31/20252,763168838853N/A
4/30/20252,681130754772N/A
1/31/20252,61028730750N/A
10/31/20242,533-39612638N/A
7/31/20242,452-136607635N/A
4/30/20242,362-276578602N/A
1/31/20242,263-355488512N/A
10/31/20232,168-464394414N/A
7/31/20232,065-592251268N/A
4/30/20231,961-691177196N/A
1/31/20231,858-8156386N/A
10/31/20221,731-903-423N/A
7/31/20221,600-9152351N/A
4/30/20221,464-9824467N/A
1/31/20221,300-84887104N/A
10/31/20211,152-683115125N/A
7/31/20211,019-534123132N/A
4/30/2021904-318134145N/A
1/31/2021835-266111128N/A
10/31/2020768-24196118N/A
7/31/2020704-2326485N/A
4/30/2020644-2154473N/A
1/31/2020586-2092856N/A
10/31/2019534-189N/A41N/A
7/31/2019487-155N/A37N/A
4/30/2019441-152N/A32N/A
1/31/2019399-125N/A15N/A
10/31/2018361-118N/A5N/A
7/31/2018322-121N/A-11N/A
4/30/2018288-108N/A-12N/A
1/31/2018257-110N/A-25N/A
10/31/2017228-105N/A-32N/A
7/31/2017204-94N/A-31N/A
4/30/2017181-88N/A-37N/A
1/31/2017161-75N/A-42N/A
10/31/2016139-87N/A-44N/A
1/31/201686-76N/A-42N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: OKTA's forecast earnings growth (18.3% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: OKTA's earnings (18.3% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (16.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: OKTA's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: OKTA's revenue (8.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: OKTA's revenue (8.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: OKTA's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10.4%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/07 12:19
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/07 00:00
Earnings2026/01/31
Annual Earnings2026/01/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Okta, Inc. is covered by 61 analysts. 43 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ellie BagshawArete Research Services LLP
Shrenik KothariBaird
Saket KaliaBarclays